/Issued 5:43 PM CDT, Sunday, April 5, 2015/
The light blue outlined area on the map below has the greatest chance for getting periods of snow and mixed precipitation from Tonight through Monday Night with several inches of snow possible in some locales in the blue outlined area. More information below.
Here’s the RAP model snowfall accumulation forecast valid through 10 AM Monday. This map looks pretty good to me with potential for 2-4″+ snow amounts by Monday Morning from the Brainerd Lakes, Hinckley, Pine City, Siren, Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, and Phillips areas with amounts of 1″ or less as far north as the Twin Ports.
There’s another storm to keep an eye on for late this week. Some models like storm track number 1 or 2 that are shown on this map, while another one prefers track number 3 which is also the one I’m kinda leaning towards at the moment. The farther south this storm goes the less precipitation will likely see here in the Northland.
Purple shaded area on the map is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. More information at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
March 29-April 4, 2015
High temperatures:
3/29: 44F/4 degrees above normal
3/30: 51F/11 degrees above normal
3/31: 56F/15 degrees above normal
4/1: 52F/11 degrees above normal
4/2: 61F/19 degrees above normal
4/3: 38F/5 degrees below normal
4/4: 44F/1 degree above normal
Low temperatures:
3/29: 32F/9 degrees above normal
3/30: 30F/7 degrees above normal
3/31: 30F/6 degrees above normal
4/1: 30F/6 degrees above normal
4/2: 26F/2 degrees above normal
4/3: 24F/1 degree below normal
4/4: 24F/1 degree below normal
Total precipitation: 0.13″
Normal: 0.41″
Departure: -0.28″ below normal
Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center. Above average temps in the Northland.
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Note: Not gonna lie, the forecast from late Tonight through Tuesday Night is not an easy one for Duluth and Superior. The setup in place consists of an Ontario high while low pressure moves slowly east out of the Rockies/Western High Plains. More times than not once high pressure sets up to our north at this time of year it tends to keep the airmass too dry to allow precipitation that develops to our south from lifting as far north as the Twin Ports. The problem is that quite a few short range computer models show precipitation lifting north into the Twin Ports late Tonight with a few more rounds of precipitation occurring Monday into Tuesday. If precipitation does make it into Duluth and Superior temperatures look cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow — If we do see snow we could see a couple inches of accumulation between late Tonight and Tuesday. Again, I’m not sold that will see much precipitation here in the Twin Ports, but perhaps this time will be an exception where the moisture wins out instead of the dry air advecting down the big lake eating away at the shield of precipitation as it tries to advance north.
Weather Summary for April 5, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Several areas of low pressure averaging 996-1006mb were over the Rockies early This Evening with a stationary front along the Minnesota-Iowa border and high pressure of 1022mb covering Central Canada and Lake Superior. We saw mostly sunny to partly sunny skies in the Northland Today with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s while 60s and even some 70s were found in far Southern Minnesota. Winds were out of the east or northeast at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Low.
Tonight through Monday Night (April 5-6)
Strong high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary well to our south will combine with a few disturbances moving east out of the Western High Plains to generate a couple rounds of precipitation especially for Southern portions of the Northland from Tonight through Monday Night. Strong Frontogenesis and a good deal of divergence over the Upper Midwest should also help in the development of precipitation during the next 24-30 hours. Some of this precip could be moderate to heavy at times as there will be some conditional instability in place. Just how far north the precip gets is uncertain though due to an area of high pressure which will be located to our north — This high and an ENE wind coming off Lake Superior will pump drier air down the lake which often times eats away at the precip as it tries to push north.
As for the precipitation type: Rain or a rain/snow mix which will turn to all snow Overnight into Monday Morning, changing back to rain or a rain/snow mix Monday Afternoon, then back over to snow Monday Night. The Iron Range, North Shore, Arrowhead, and Borderland areas in Northern Minnesota looks like it will escape all of this precipitation from Tonight through Monday Night while Duluth and Superior is pretty much of the fence between getting some precip and none at all.
Low temperatures Tonight and Monday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with highs on Monday in the 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Low to Medium.
Tuesday through Thursday (April 7-9)
The overall pattern doesn’t change much through midweek as high pressure remains to our north while a frontal boundary remains well to our south. A stronger system and upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies though from Wednesday into Thursday.
There is a chance for more snow or rain in Western-Southern parts of the Northland on Tuesday into early Wednesday with mainly dry weather expected for Wednesday PM and possibly into Thursday too, although there is a chance that we could see some rain approach from the SW by Thursday.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s from Tuesday through Thursday with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low to Medium.
(April 10-15)
Confidence is pretty high that a storm will move out into the Plains later this week, but confidence is very low on where this storm will track once it reaches the Plains. The time frame to monitor is April 9-11 or Thursday-Saturday. If this storm tracks far enough to the north, then most of the Northland would get some rain and possibly a little bit of snow later this week. Another system could affect us sometime around the 13th-15th time frame with possible rain. Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 10th-15th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible after Midnight. Low 23 to 28. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Light snow possible early. Total snowfall accumulations less than 1″. Considerable cloudiness. Breezy. High 32 to 37. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 33 to 38.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. High 33 to 38.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 44
Low: 26
Sunrise Monday: 6:38 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:44 PM CDT
Tim
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