/Issued 6:45 PM CDT, Saturday, April 11, 2015/
Future radar per 12z WRF-NMM: Keep in mind that timing could change from what the maps below are currently showing. Also remember that this is just one model’s take on what ‘could’ happen late Sunday Afternoon/Evening.
Sunday (7 PM)
Rewinding to 5 PM Sunday — This is around the time we should see showers and a few thunderstorms start to develop in Western portions of the Northland.
Fast forwarding to 9 PM Sunday — Most of the showers and thunderstorms should be moving into Northwest Wisconsin and through the Arrowhead of Minnesota by around 9 PM Sunday Evening.
Weather Summary for April 11, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
An awesome spring day across the Northland with high temperatures in the 60s with even a few spots up near 70 degrees! Keep in mind that ‘average’ high temperatures for April 11 are generally in the mid to upper 40s. Sunny to partly cloudy skies covered the area with a breezy south or southwest wind at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.
The extremely dry conditions, and now the very warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds are all combining to make for dangerous fire weather conditions in most of the Northland.
A wild fire occurred This Afternoon just north of Duluth, Minnesota. More information can be found at this link (Source, News Tribune) http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/3720326-crews-race-save-homes-wildfire-north-duluth-two-outbuildings-lost
-For Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a shower in Northern Minnesota but most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should stay dry with lows generally in the 40s along with southerly winds at 5-15 mph with higher gusts.
-Sunday and Sunday Night: An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will track through the Upper Midwest — Ahead of this system a southerly low level jet of 30-50 knots will develop which will help advect a more moist airmass into the Northland. Dew points should climb into the 40s on Sunday; The atmosphere will also destabilize with CAPE of 100-500 j/kg along with Lifted Indices from 0 to -4C. Winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be quite strong (40-60+ knots) while 0-6 KM Bulk Shear ranges from around 30-50 knots.
As the frontal boundaries move east, we should see the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms especially from Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night. Rain will advance from west to east, so Northwest Wisconsin probably won’t get any rain until Sunday Evening.
It will remain unseasonably mild ahead of this system on Sunday with highs forecast to be in the 60s and 70s in the Northland along with south or southwest winds at 10-25 mph.
Note: The risk for severe thunderstorms is very low in our area on Sunday, but thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing lightning, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and possibly some small hail.
Tim
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