/Issued 5:27 PM CDT, Thursday, November 2, 2017/
Source: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/
Note: If ratios end up a little higher, up around 10:1, then snow totals would also end up slightly higher than what this graph shows which is set to an 8:1 ratio.
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/
12z HRW NSSL model
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM Nest model radar simulation starting at 6 PM Friday, ending at 1 PM Saturday.
Note: Will start as snow Friday night (Blue colors) but as warmer air lifts north on Saturday, any remaining precipitation will switch over to rain/drizzle (Green colors on map) The exception to this could be over northern Minnesota, mainly north of Highway 2 where temperatures could remain cold enough to produce frozen precipitation through Saturday night.
Source: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com
12z European model 850mb temperature forecast valid for next Wednesday, November 8, 2017. Note: GFS model from today isn’t as cold as what the European model is showing so there is some uncertainty in just how cold will get for next week. Stay tuned
Snowfall reports from November 1-2, 2017
Source: http://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Grand Marais, MN 3 NNE: 8.0 inches
Wolf Ridge, MN: 7.4 inches
Blackberry, MN 2 SW: 7.0 inches
Finland, MN 3 E: 6.0 inches
Isabella, MN 14 W: 6.0 inches
Two Harbors, MN 7 NW: 5.6 inches
Two Harbors, MN 2 N: 5.0 inches
Orr, MN 3 E: 4.7 inches
Cook, MN: 4.5 inches
Lester Park, MN 3 WSW: 4.5 inches
Duluth Airport: 4.4 inches
Chisholm, MN: 4.3 inches
Butternut, WI 3 N: 4.0 inches
Grand Marais, MN 2 NE: 4.0 inches
Grand Rapids, MN 6 SSW: 3.9 inches
Mahtowa, MN 3 NW: 3.8 inches
Ely, MN: 3.8 inches
Hoyt Lakes, MN: 3.8 inches
Silver Bay, MN: 3.5 inches
Cloquet, MN 1 N: 3.5 inches
Babbitt, MN: 3.5 inches
Floodwood, MN: 3.5 inches
Embarrass, MN: 3.0 inches
Cotton, MN: 3.0 inches
Wright, MN 3 E: 2.9 inches
Sarona, WI: 2.6 inches
Clam Lake, WI 4 W: 2.5 inches
Gile, WI: 2.3 inches
Phillips, WI 1 S: 2.3 inches
International Falls, MN: 2.3 inches
Ashland, WI: 2.0 inches
Herbster, WI: 1.8 inches
Brainerd, MN: 1.3 inches
Weather Tidbits
*2nd snowiest November 1 on record at Duluth, Minnesota on Wednesday with a snowfall of 4.4 inches. The snowiest November 1 on record occurred in 1991 with a total of 24.1 inches of snow.
*October 2017 was 2nd snowiest on record at Brainerd, Minnesota (3.0″) and 14th wettest October on record (Precip total of 3.34″)
*October 2017 was 7th wettest on record at Ashland, Wisconsin (Precip total of 4.91″)
October 2017 Climate Summaries
Duluth, Minnesota
Average temperature: 45.6 degrees
Departure: +2.4 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 3.40″
Departure: +0.55″ above normal
Total snowfall: 11.1″
Departure: +8.8″ above normal
**3 thunderstorm days**
International Falls, Minnesota
Average temperature: 43.8 degrees
Departure: +2.7 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 1.51″
Departure: -0.57″ below normal
Total Snowfall: 2.1″
Departure: -0.1″ below normal
**1 thunderstorm day**
Twin Cities, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 51.3 degrees
Departure: +2.4 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 4.49″
Departure: +2.06″ above normal
Total Snowfall: 0.1″
Departure: -0.5″ below normal
**6 thunderstorm days**
St. Cloud, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 47.2 degrees
Departure: +1.5 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 5.08″
Departure: +2.59″ above normal
Total Snowfall: 1.4″
Departure: +0.6″ above normal
**3 thunderstorm days**
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Average Temperature: 49.5 degrees
Departure: +2.2 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 3.54″
Departure: +1.20″ above normal
Total Snowfall: 1.9″
Departure: +1.5″ above normal
**3 thunderstorm days**
Marquette, Michigan
Average Temperature: 47.3 degrees
Departure: +4.1 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 8.19″
Departure: +4.35″ above normal
Total Snowfall: 8.8″
Departure: +2.8″ above normal
**2 thunderstorm days**
Weather Synopsis
Low pressure which brought us our snow on Wednesday is centered just north of Lake Superior late this afternoon, behind this system clouds lingered with more colder than normal temperatures with highs today ranging from the lower 30s to upper 30s. There’s been a few radar returns dropping SE across parts of northeast Minnesota today so a few flurries may have been seen in a few locations today.
Tonight: Mainly dry under mostly cloudy skies but some holes in the clouds could develop at times. Lows will be in the 20s but where skies clear out, temperatures could drop into the teens, maybe even a few single digits by daybreak.
Friday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies during the day with a few flurries possible near Lake Superior as winds veer easterly. Snow is forecast to return to the Northland Friday night — Starting first over southwest portions of the area late Friday afternoon, then lifting farther to the northeast Friday night. Highs will be in the 30s with lows Friday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Note: Snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame with potential for higher amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to an easterly wind coming off the lake helping to enhance the snow.
Saturday: A gloomy day as warmer air moves over the snow cover which will cause lots of clouds, drizzle and some fog across the area. There will also be areas of light snow and rain for Saturday and Saturday night but no significant accumulation of rain or snow is expected for Saturday. Highs will be in the 30s to lower 40s.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. A few flurries or sprinkles early. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness (Few peeks of sun possible) High 32 to 37. Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday night… Snow developing after 7 PM. Snowfall of 2 to 4 inches possible. Low 30 to 32. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
High: 43
Low: 28
Sunrise Friday: 7:54 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 5:50 PM CDT
Tim
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