/Issued 7:02 PM CDT, Sunday, June 10, 2018/
Goes-16 water vapor satellite image from 7 PM CDT, Sunday, June 10, 2018
18z NAM-Nest simulated radar forecast valid 8 PM this evening to 1 PM Tuesday. Looks dry in most of the Northland through Monday morning, then a few showers could affect western portions of the area for Monday afternoon with some more showers developing/spreading farther east for Monday night. Note: Doesn’t look like will have any severe weather in the Northland, in fact very little thunderstorm activity is expected as instability will be on the low side in our area.
A quiet start to the tornado season in Minnesota, but really the entire U.S. has seen fewer tornadoes so far this year compared to average.
Note: Minnesota averages 6 tornadoes during the month of May, this past May had 1.
Note: Wisconsin averages 3 tornadoes during the month of May, so the 2 tornadoes this past May was fairly close to the 25-year average for the month of May.
Note: The most active tornado day in the U.S. for May 2018 occurred on the 28th with 27 tornado reports.
Temperature Departure map for the week of June 3, 2018. Most of the Northland had near to below average temperatures last week (Green and blue colors on map)
Precipitation Departure map for the week of June 3, 2018
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
June 3 through 9, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
6/3: 61 F/-6 degrees below normal
6/4: 75 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/5: 64 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/6: 77 F/+9 degrees above normal
6/7: 68 F/Normal
6/8: 71 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/9: 66 F/-3 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
6/3: 43 F/-3 degrees below normal
6/4: 46 F/Normal
6/5: 43 F/-3 degrees below normal
6/6: 45 F/-1 degree below normal
6/7: 50 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/8: 48 F/+1 degree above normal
6/9: 48 F/+1 degree above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of June 3: 57.5 degrees (+0.2 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.46 inches
Normal: 0.88 inches
Departure: -0.42 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of June 3, 2018
Temperature: 64.5 degrees
Departure: +2.0 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.02 inches
Departure: +0.04 inches above normal
Note: June 1 through 9 is running nearly 1 degree warmer than the period from May 1 through 9 at Duluth, Minnesota, in other words the first 9 days of this month haven’t been that much warmer compared to the first 9 days of May, a little unusual.
Average temperature (June 1 to 9) 54.7 degrees — Normal temp 57.0 degrees; -2.3 degrees below average.
Average temperature (May 1 to 9) 53.8 degrees — Normal temp 48.1 degrees; +5.7 degrees above average
Still dealing with a gusty east wind near Lake Superior today with highs in the 50s while it was warmer inland with highs in the 70s. Sunshine in northern Minnesota today while some clouds have been moving in a SE-NW direction through parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but still a fair amount of sun was seen even in those areas today.
Should remain dry in the Northland tonight with high pressure over eastern Canada which will continue to produce a dry easterly flow over the Lake Superior region. Lows tonight will be in the 40s near Lake Superior and in the 50s elsewhere.
Winds turn a little more south/southeast Monday as low pressure approaches from the northern Plains — Moisture will increase Monday from SW-NE with PWATS climbing to 1.00 inch to around 1.50 inch. Should see some showers move into western areas during the day Monday, remaining dry farther east. Then Monday night will have a chance for some rain over the entire Northland.
Not a lot of instability in our area Monday or Monday night with elevated CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg, lapse rates also look poor, so I don’t think will be seeing widespread thunderstorm activity in our area as this system moves through, but a few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out Monday afternoon or Monday evening.
The occluded front attached to an area of low pressure will pass through our area Monday night with a persistent S-SE 850mb jet of 30 to around 40 knots bringing more moisture north into our area, this combined with some lift due to the approaching low and front should lead to some rain for most areas by Monday night.
This system exits to the east for Tuesday and we should see clearing skies over the Northland by the afternoon. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the 70s with west or northwest winds.
Dry weather should continue Wednesday with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees with westerly winds.
Note: Friday through Sunday (15-17) could turn wet and stormy at times but this isn’t a guarantee just yet as the computer models have been fluctuating quite a bit lately.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Breezy. Low 45 to 50. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Mostly sunny early followed by increasing cloudiness during the afternoon. High 66 to 71 but in the 50s near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday night… Rain showers. Mostly cloudy. Low around 50.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny during the afternoon. High 73 to 78. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal Temperatures for June 11
Sunrise Monday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 9:03 PM CDT