/Issued 5:29 PM CDT, Thursday, October 4, 2018/
18z HopWRF model 10-4-2018
Here’s my updated snowfall potential map for late tonight-Friday morning. Most of us west-north of Duluth will likely pick up a coating to an inch of snow early Friday morning, but I can’t rule out a few locations possibly getting as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow, but I don’t think those types of totals will be very widespread.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, October 4, 2018
Loop time: 12:12 PM to 5:17 PM CDT
A west-southwest flow aloft was in place over the upper Midwest today with our next system heading E-NE out of Wyoming and the northern Rockies.
Radar loop ending at 5:45 PM CDT.
Snow and rain moving northeast out of the northern Plains late this afternoon. Snow in blue, rain in green.
18z GFS model 10-4-2018
Our next weather system arrives tonight and lingers thru early Saturday morning — Image below is the 500mb vort forecast from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday. Sufficient lift in the atmosphere with the approaching low/disturbance to generate precipitation across the Northland beginning later this evening.
20z HRRR model run 10-4-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday
Precipitation spreads north-northeast into the Northland later this evening with rain or snow expected across our area, precipitation is forecast to diminish from SW-NE after 7 AM Friday with some lingering drizzle or light rain for Friday afternoon.
Local Storm Reports for October 3-4, 2018
12:10 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 50 mph. 9 WNW Hovland, MN (Cook County) Several 12 inch diameter aspen and jack pine trees were downed.
3:20 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 4 S Phillips, WI (Price County)
3:15 PM: Hail — 1.00 inch. 4 N Catawba, WI (Price County) Quarter sized hail.
3:07 PM: Hail — 0.70 inch. 14 W Isabella, MN (Lake County)
2:40 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 SE Aurora, MN (St. Louis County)
2:11 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 8 S Cohasset, MN (Itasca County)
Highest wind reports from October 3, 2018
Bay of Grand Marais: 56 mph
Ely, MN: 54 mph
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 54 mph
Devils Island: 53 mph
5 NE Superior: 52 mph
Duluth Airport: 51 mph
2 SE Bayfield: 50 mph
Eveleth-Virginia Airport: 47 mph
Brainerd, MN: 46 mph
1 E Duluth, MN: 46 mph
5 E Hibbing, MN: 46 mph
Walker, MN: 44 mph
Grand Rapids, MN: 43 mph
Two Harbors, MN: 43 mph
Northome, MN: 42 mph
Ashland, WI: 41 mph
Hinckley, MN: 40 mph
Hayward, WI: 40 mph
Siren, WI: 40 mph
Superior Airport: 39 mph
Cloquet, MN: 38 mph
Cook, MN: 38 mph
International Falls, MN: 37 mph
Aitkin, MN: 36 mph
Orr, MN: 36 mph
Glidden, WI: 1.78 in
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 1.67 in
Hayward, WI: 1.48 in
Kabetogama, MN: 1.10 in
Grand Marais, MN: 1.01 in
Northome, MN: 1.00 in
Isabella, MN: 0.94 in
International Falls, MN: 0.90 in
Butternut, WI: 0.74 in
3 E Orr, MN: 0.63 in
Littlefork, MN: 0.62 in
1 WSW Saxon, WI: 0.55 in
Minong, WI: 0.49 in
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.48 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.44 in
Babbitt, MN: 0.40 in
Siren, WI: 0.39 in
Washburn, WI: 0.33 in
Ely, MN: 0.31 in
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.30 in
Ashland, WI: 0.26 in
Duluth, MN: 0.25 in
Cook, MN: 0.21 in
Walker, MN: 0.21 in
Hinckley, MN: 0.18 in
Hill City, MN: 0.15 in
Moose Lake, MN: 0.15 in
3 E Wright, MN: 0.12 in
Note: International Falls, Minnesota had their wettest October 3 on record on Wednesday with 0.90 inches of precipitation — The previous wettest October 3 occurred in 1990 with 0.67 inches of precipitation.
Note: Hibbing, Minnesota had their 5th wettest October 3 on record on Wednesday with 0.48 inches of precipitation — The wettest October 3 on record is 1.19 inches of precip set in 1966.
…Record Snowfall for October 5…
International Falls, Minn: 1.5 inches set in 2012.
Duluth, Minn: 0.1 inches set in 2001.
Hibbing, Minn: Trace set in 1952 and tied in 1964, 1974, 1986 and 1991.
It’s possible we could see record snowfall totals for October 5 at all 3 of these locations on Friday, but it won’t take a lot of snow to set new snowfall records for the 5th of October.
Hopefully you enjoyed the sunshine today because I don’t think will be seeing much sun again anytime soon. A cool but dry day as Wednesday’s powerful storm lifted rapidly into northeastern Canada. Partly to mostly sunny skies were common in our area today with highs generally in the low to mid 40s.
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
•Tonight: Clouds are quickly overspreading the Northland late this afternoon and expect generally overcast skies for tonight with precipitation spreading from SW-NE during the night. P-types will be tricky as it will depend on near surface temperatures as to what type of precipitation falls at your location. Dew points late this afternoon were running in the 20s to around 30 degrees so there is quite a bit of dry air currently in place so as the precipitation falls into this dry air, temperatures will be able to drop closer to the dew point. Aloft, temps at 850mb are already cold enough for snow with 5 PM temperatures of -1 to -6C from south-north while the 925mb temps are warmer, ranging from +1 to +2C. The 850mb temps will hold fairly steady tonight while the 925mb temps hover between -1C and +1C which is borderline for snow. Near surface temps should range from around 31 to 37 degrees tonight, warmest near Lake Superior. Thinking is will see rain to start, then a switch to snow takes place early Friday morning in north-central Minnesota; Mostly rain close to Lake Superior, while on top of the hill in Duluth a rain-snow mix is possible early Friday morning with a coating of snowfall possible on top of the hill. Most of northwest Wisconsin should remain in the form of rain, however, a rain-snow mix could occur for a time early Friday morning for locations that are far enough inland from Lake Superior.
•Friday: A gloomy and cool early October day with lingering drizzle and light rain which could mix with snow at times in far northern Minnesota. Highs ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s with easterly winds. Steady batch of precipitation which affects us late tonight-early Friday morning should move out of the Northland by mid-morning, any precip we get Friday afternoon should be fairly spotty, but a more organized batch of light rain is possible Friday night as another piece of energy moves east out of the northern Plains.
•Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cool with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A few spotty showers can’t be ruled out, but most of us should be dry. An east wind redevelops Saturday night and Sunday, and this could lead to some fog, drizzle or even some light lake effect rain at times near Lake Superior from Saturday night into Sunday.
Note: Keeping an eye on the Monday-Wednesday (October 8-10 time frame) for a potential storm that could bring widespread rains to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Duluth, Minnesota climate normals for October 5
Sunrise Friday: 7:13 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:40 PM CDT