/Issued 6:18 PM CDT, Friday, October 5, 2018/
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu
Source: http://www.intellicast.com
Radar loop ending at 5:45 PM CDT, Friday, October 5, 2018. An area of precipitation is moving east-northeast across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota late this afternoon.
Blue: Snow
Green: Rain
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-5-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
20z HRRR model 10-5-2018
Simulated Radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM Saturday.
Another round of light rain is expected to affect much of northeast Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin tonight with snow farther west/north noted by the blue colors on this map. Precipitation is expected to diminish from west to east early Saturday morning.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 10-5-2018
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 10-5-2018
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 10-5-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid thru October 21, 2018.
Thru most of next week the pattern remains nearly the same with a strong ridge over the eastern U.S. resulting in much above average temperatures while a deep trough covers the western U.S. along with well below average temperatures — Toward mid month there are signs showing up in model data for a pattern change as the ridge out east breaks down while the trough out west breaks down as well, result from this would be for cooler temps spreading farther into the eastern U.S. while the western U.S. starts to warm-up.
*Snowfall reports for October 5, 2018*
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
4 SE Britt, MN (St. Louis County) 3.0″
McKinley, MN (St. Louis County) 3.0″
7 SE Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County) 3.0″
3 E Payne, MN (St. Louis County) 3.0″
Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County) 2.5″
Babbitt, MN (St. Louis County) 2.2″
8 NE Cook, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
2 N Shaw, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County) 2.0″
7 SE Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) 2.0″
12 N Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) 2.0″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5″
11 N Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County) 1.5″
1 NW Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County) 1.0″
1 N Federal Dam, MN (Cass County) 1.0″
3 E Orr, MN (St. Louis County) 0.5″
4 W Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 0.1″
Precipitation reports for October 5, 2018
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/
Note: Totals listed below thru 5 PM Friday.
Two Harbors, MN: 0.76 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.51 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.50 in
Evelth-Virginia Airport: 0.48 in
Duluth Airport: 0.44 in
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.40 in
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.39 in
McGregor, MN: 0.37 in
Ely, MN: 0.32 in
Siren, WI: 0.30 in
Bigfork, MN: 0.29 in
Superior Airport: 0.29 in
Walker, MN: 0.26 in
Moose Lake, MN: 0.25 in
Ashland, WI: 0.24 in
Hayward, WI: 0.17 in
Cook, MN: 0.15 in
International Falls, MN: 0.07 in
Weather Synopsis
A cool and overcast day with widespread early morning precipitation in the form of snow or rain followed by areas of fog and drizzle this afternoon. Highs today ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s, should be in the mid to upper 50s in early October.
RAP model analysis and Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery shows that the upper Midwest is in a SW flow aloft between a ridge over the southeast U.S. and a trough over the western U.S. Embedded in the SW flow aloft is an upper level disturbance which is lifting NE thru the northern Plains this afternoon while a more potent system affects the Pacific northwest.
Weather Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
•Tonight: Mostly cloudy with some light rain and drizzle along with areas of fog especially near Lake Superior. Surface temps should remain warm enough tonight for precipitation to remain in liquid form. Lows tonight in the 30s to around 40 degrees.
•Saturday: High pressure builds east out of the northern Plains and this could give us a few breaks in the clouds, but I don’t think will have a whole lot of sun or persistent sun anywhere in our area on Saturday. Cool temps persist with highs in the 40s.
•Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cool with scattered showers and drizzle especially near Lake Superior as NE winds develop again Saturday night after a wind shift to the NW during the day Saturday, those NE winds coming down the lake combined with 850mb temps of around 0 to -2C should cause some lake effect rain to develop along the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior from Saturday night into Sunday. Highs Sunday mainly in the 40s. Note: Area-wide rain expected to spread from south to north sometime Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, and rain chances continue for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday the way it looks now as a slow moving low pressure system moves N/NE out of the Rockies/southern Plains region.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 6
High: 56
Low: 38
Sunrise Saturday: 7:14 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:39 PM CDT
Tim
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