/Issued 4:53 PM CDT, Sunday, October 7, 2018/
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
Widespread flood watches in effect over the next few days from parts of Texas north to Minnesota (Green shaded area on map)
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 upper level water vapor satellite loop for Sunday, October 7, 2018.
Loop time: 10:07 AM to 3:37 PM CDT.
Large ridge over the east, trough over the west — Humid/SW flow in between from the southern Plains to upper Midwest.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 10-7-2018
Simulated Radar forecast from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Wednesday.
Green=Rain
Blue=Snow
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 10-7-2018
The weather pattern doesn’t change much thru midweek with a boundary to our south/east which separates warm air to the south/east and cold air to the NW. A couple waves of low pressure will track along the boundary bringing rounds of precipitation to the Northland thru Wednesday.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 10-7-2018
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 10-7-2018
Precipitation Anomaly forecast valid thru October 23, 2018.
A pattern change is on the way! Most of this week looks wet, but a drier weather pattern appears to be emerging especially after next weekend.
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Temperature departure map for the week of September 30, 2018. Below average temperatures last week over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Precipitation departure map for the week of September 30, 2018. Average to above average precipitation totals last week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
September 30-October 6, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
9/30: 57 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/1: 48 F/-10 degrees below normal
10/2: 52 F/-6 degrees below normal
10/3: 59 F/+2 degrees above normal
10/4: 49 F/-8 degrees below normal
10/5: 45 F/-12 degrees below normal
10/6: 46 F/-10 degrees below normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
9/30: 40 F/Normal
10/1: 40 F/Normal
10/2: 45 F/+5 degrees above normal
10/3: 37 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/4: 31 F/-8 degrees below normal
10/5: 38 F/-1 degree below normal
10/6: 39 F/+1 degree above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of September 30: 44.7 degrees (-3.6 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.91 inches
Normal: 0.80 inches
Departure: +0.11 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 30, 2018
Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Temperature: 45.2 degrees
Departure: -6.4 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.91 inches
Departure: +0.23 inches above normal
…It’s been a cool stretch in the Twin Ports and all of Minnesota over the last 2 weeks or so…
•Average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota from September 21 to October 6: 46.9 degrees which is -3.3 degrees colder than normal.
•While for the entire state of Minnesota, the average temperature from September 21 to October 6: 48.8 degrees which is -4.7 degrees colder than normal.
•12 consecutive days with average or below average temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota (September 25 to October 6) Our last day with an above average temperature was September 24.
Climate Data for October 6, 2018
Hibbing, Minnesota
4th coldest high temperature on record for October 6 with a high on Saturday of 41 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 6 is 38 degrees set in 1952, tied in 1976.
Brainerd, Minnesota
Tied for 4th coldest high temperature on record for October 6 with a high on Saturday of 45 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 6 is 33 degrees set in 1935.
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for October 6 with a high on Saturday of 43 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 6 is 39 degrees set in 1974, tied in 1979.
Climate Data for October 5, 2018
Ashland, Wisconsin
4th coldest high temperature on record for October 5 with a high on Friday of 46 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 5 is 36 degrees set in 1952.
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for October 5 with a high on Friday of 42 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 5 is 35 degrees set in 1976.
Hibbing, Minnesota
Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for October 5 with a high on Friday of 41 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 5 is 31 degrees set in 1952.
Weather Synopsis
There’s been a few breaks in the clouds over parts of the area today, but overall another gray day with more below average temperatures with highs in the low to mid 40s. An easterly wind off Lake Superior has produced some light lake effect rain showers today mainly along the North Shore thanks in part to the chilly 850mb temps of 0 to -2C while lake surface temps at the head of the lake were sitting at around +12C this afternoon.
RAP model analysis had the upper Midwest under a SW flow aloft between a large and strong ridge (5940) across the eastern U.S. to a large trough over the western U.S. with heights as low as 5580 meters over the southwest U.S.
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
[Tonight] Overcast with some rain spreading into the Northland from SW-NE during the night. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
[Monday] Rainy with highs ranging from the upper 30s in far northern Minnesota to around 50 degrees toward the Hayward lakes.
Note: Breezy east-northeast winds will linger near Lake Superior thru Monday with winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to 25 mph.
Note: Some of the rain could mix with snow at times on Monday in extreme northern Minnesota from Indus and Loman, east to International Falls but there should be little if any snow accumulation.
[Tuesday and Wednesday] A stronger wave of low pressure could take shape over the central Plains while tracking NE into the upper Great Lakes — There is potential for heavier precipitation from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday if this system does develop. Colder air would move in behind the low causing the rain to change to snow on Wednesday over parts of north-central Minnesota, and some snow accumulation is possible on Wednesday over that area. A period of gale-force NE winds would also be possible near Lake Superior Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM should this system develop like what the computer models are showing today. Stay tuned.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 8
High: 55
Low: 37
Sunrise Monday: 7:17 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 6:35 PM CDT
Tim