/Issued 6:12 PM CDT, Monday, October 8, 2018/
…Lake Shore Flooding possible Tuesday night and Wednesday…
•Strong northeast gales blowing down Lake Superior.
•Potentially powerful gusts over 50 mph over the open water.
•Expected wave heights of 12 to 16 feet along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and 10 to 14 feet along the South Shore of Lake Superior.
•Difficult travel for high profile vehicles on high bridges between Duluth and Superior.
•Potential flooding and damage to shoreline from waves.
Flood Watch in effect late tonight thru late Wednesday night for the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior, all of northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota, including the cities of Duluth and Superior.
The potential for accumulating snow continues on Wednesday for parts of western Minnesota into north-central areas of Minnesota with at least a few inches of snow (possibly more than a few inches) the way it looks now.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-8-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Thursday.
Occasional rain will continue over the Northland tonight and Tuesday, then we should see some heavier rain lift north into our area Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong area of low pressure approaches from the SW. Also note the blue and pink colors on the map which represents snow and mixed precipitation types. A changeover from rain to snow or sleet is expected Wednesday over parts of northern Minnesota, and the rain/snow line could shift farther south/east late Wednesday night as the surface low pulls away.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-8-2018
Wind gust forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Wednesday.
Northeast winds will continue in the 10 to 20 mph range near Lake Superior for tonight and most of Tuesday, then the wind speeds really ramp up later Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening, and those strong NE winds will likely persist through most of Wednesday with potential for wind gusts of 30 to around 50 mph near Lake Superior from Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-8-2018
Goes-16 water vapor satellite image; temperatures and upper level analysis from Monday afternoon, October 8, 2018.
Really is an incredible pattern that has setup across the U.S. this week.
Hurricane Michael update (4 PM CDT, Mon, Oct 8, 2018)
Location: About 30 miles northwest of the tip of Cuba; About 520 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph
Present Movement: N at 9 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 978mb or 28.88 inches
Hurricane Michael is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane as it makes landfall somewhere in the northeastern Gulf/Florida panhandle Wednesday afternoon/evening. Winds greater than 110 mph are forecast as Michael makes landfall on Wednesday.
12z GEFS model 10-8-2018
500mb forecast valid thru October 24, 2018.
A pattern change is coming as we get rid of the highly amplified east coast ridge/west coast trough configuration later this week. A northwest flow aloft is forecast to develop later this week, and could continue for most of the rest of this month per long range model data. This new pattern should lead to less rainfall for the upper Midwest while temperatures remain generally below average, although some days of warmer temps (possibly above average) are certainly possible mid to late month.
Cloudy, cool and damp weather over the area today with highs ranging from the lower 40s in northern Minnesota to around 50 degrees in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
RAP model analysis from late Monday afternoon showed a highly amplified pattern in place with a sub-tropical ridge of 5940 meters over the mid-Atlantic while a potent trough 5580-5640 meters covered the western U.S.
[Tonight and Tuesday] Very little change in our weather during this period. Mainly cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle along with occasional rain. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s in northern Minnesota to the mid 40s around the Hayward lakes area. Highs Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
[Tuesday night through Wednesday night] A powerful fall storm will impact our area during this period. Low pressure is forecast to be over western Iowa Tuesday night, this low tracks NE and deepens Wednesday with the surface low reaching the upper Michigan-Wisconsin border by Wednesday evening the way it looks now.
This storm will bring a variety of hazards to the Northland.
-Strong NE winds
-Possible scattered power outages especially near Lake Superior
-Rain changing to snow with some sleet also possible
-Lakeshore flooding along parts of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior
Snow threat looks greatest across north-central Minnesota from Cass Lake and Walker to Bigfork and International Falls — This area could see several inches of snow accumulate Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Sleet is also possible on Wednesday.
Rain farther south/east, but even these areas could see the rain mix with or change to flurries or snow showers late Wednesday night with light snowfall amounts possible from Aitkin to Hibbing to Ely.
The storm track could shift a bit which could increase/decrease snowfall amounts, and the location of snow. Stay tuned!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 9
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:33 PM CDT