Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Temperatures at 3 PM Saturday ranged from around 80 degrees in eastern Nebraska, to around 60 degrees in far southern Minnesota to the mid 30s to around 40 degrees in Duluth.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 4-6-19
Radar forecast valid from 8 PM this Saturday evening to 1 AM Monday.
Rain showers with brief heavy downpours should become more widespread later tonight, and then linger through most of the day Sunday. There could be a few thunderstorms as well from later this evening through Sunday afternoon.
Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from April 6, 2019.
Lift will increase across the Northland later tonight into Sunday as energy approaches from the southwest and from the west which can be seen on water vapor imagery today. As the forcing increases so will the coverage of rain showers.
Note: I’m continuing to watch a potential winter storm that could impact portions of the Northland later next week.
•A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move out into the western High Plains around the middle of next week. This area of low pressure is then forecast to move northeast, or east-northeast, more or less following one of the two black lines on the map below, or in between the black lines on the map.
•The farther north the surface low tracks, the higher the chance for getting some significant snowfall in parts of the Northland.
•Based on what I’ve been seeing per model guidance, this is what I’ve come up with for a very early forecast. Note: What is shown on the map below is likely to change the next few days.
•Much of east-central Minnesota and northeast Minnesota including Duluth, into far northwest Wisconsin has a low chance for snowfall accumulations of 4 inches or more later next week while the darker blue area has a greater chance of snowfall accumulations of 4 inches or more.
Note: Computer models have been and continue to show absurd amounts of snow with next week’s storm, with snowfall totals of 1, 2 even 3 feet somewhere across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Those totals are likely way overdone. For one, it’s hard enough to get those kinds of snow totals in a storm during the winter months, even more difficult to get those kinds of totals in April! The ground is quite a bit warmer now compared to a few months ago, so there likely will be some melting at first, and even when the snow starts to stick, it will likely compact a bit due to the wet nature of the snowfall. Second, those snowfall model maps are using the standard 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, so if the ratios end up lower than 10:1, then those snow totals are way too high! So to those sharing snowfall maps on social media, and for the people seeing those maps, take them with a huge grain of salt!
•Gusty northeast winds are possible as well from late Wednesday into Friday. The highest wind gusts near Lake Superior, possibly an excess of 30 mph!
•Should this storm impact the Northland it looks to be from Thursday into Friday, April 11-12.
Rainfall totals for Saturday, April 6, 2019
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu
Note: Totals listed below are through 2 PM, April 6
Minong, WI: 0.32 inch
Siren, WI: 0.26 inch
Hayward, WI: 0.25 inch
Solon Springs, WI: 0.23 inch
Clam Lake, WI: 0.21 inch
Barnes, WI: 0.18 inch
Washburn, WI: 0.14 inch
Ashland, WI: 0.12 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 0.10 inch
Saginaw, MN: 0.07 inch
Duluth Airport: 0.03 inch
Two Harbors, MN: 0.01 inch
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Most of the area was socked in with clouds today, the exception to this was up along the Minnesota-Ontario border where there has been quite a bit of sunshine this afternoon which allowed temperatures to warm into the 50s while the rest of the area had highs in the 40s, although it was even cooler near Lake Superior (30s) due to increasing northeast winds.
So far this rain event in northeast Minnesota has been a wimpy one with mostly trace to a few hundredths inch of rainfall today with some heavier rain totals of around a quarter inch in parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Tonight and Sunday: Areas of fog and drizzle with rain showers becoming more widespread later tonight with scattered to numerous showers continuing on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible due to an increase in elevated CAPE to around 100-400 J/kg along with steepening mid level lapse rates of 6.0-7.5 c/km, highest values occurring later tonight/early Sunday morning. Heavy downpours are also possible as precipitable water approach the 1 inch mark in parts of the area. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s with low to mid 30s near Lake Superior. Highs Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s, possibly up around 60 degrees in far southern portions of the area while cooler mid 30s to low 40s will be found near Lake Superior. East winds persist tonight. Winds Sunday out of the south or west, except for east winds near Lake Superior.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with a chance for a few showers as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Highs Monday will be in the 40s and 50s, but there is a chance for temperatures to be even warmer, in other words possibly around 60 degrees!
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Breezy with areas of fog and drizzle. Occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorms also possible late. Low 34 to 39. Wind east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Sunday… Areas of fog and drizzle. Occasional showers. High 40 to 45, cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. High 50 to 55. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for April 7
High: 45
Low: 26
Sunrise for April 7: 6:37 AM CDT
Sunset for April 7: 7:46 PM CDT
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