Forcing will increase over the upper Midwest late tonight and Wednesday as a trough and area of low pressure move east out of the Rockies, this will lead to the development of rain with some thunderstorms expected in south-central Minnesota.
18z NAM-WRF model 4-16-19
Radar forecast valid from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Thursday.
A few showers could affect parts of north-central Minnesota early Wednesday morning, then we could see a larger area of rain lift north/east out of southern Minnesota during the day Wednesday, this rain could persist into Wednesday night before tapering off to a few spotty showers Thursday.
Note: There is still a chance that some snow could mix in with the rain Wednesday night-Thursday morning in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (especially away from Lake Superior)
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, April 16, 2019.
Our Wednesday rain maker is currently over the Rockies and Southern Plains today and is lifting to the north/east. Large scale lift will increase over the upper Midwest Wednesday as this system moves into the area with rain developing from SW-NE.
Forecast rainfall totals for Wednesday-Thursday: Less than a quarter inch in far northern Minnesota with around a half inch in northeast and east-central Minnesota increasing to over a half inch in northwest Wisconsin.
A classic spring day across the area with east winds keeping it much cooler near Lake Superior (upper 30s and 40s) while farther inland temperatures climbed into the lower to middle 60s today.
Note: High temperature of 62 degrees at the Duluth Airport today (April 16) first time since October 19 with a high of at least 60 degrees. Today, April 16 also marked the first 60 degree temperature this year in Duluth, last year the first 60 occurred on April 22. The average date for first 60 degree high temp (1981-2010 climate period) is April 8.
18z NAM 4-16-19
Widespread warmth across the northern Rockies and Northern Plains Friday, this airmass will move over the upper Midwest Saturday.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 4-16-19
Saturday has potential to be a very mild day across the upper Midwest with high temperatures possibly climbing into the 70s in much of Minnesota, greatest chances in western, central and southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Temperatures near Lake Superior could be much cooler depending on the wind direction (South-southwest wind=Warmer. East wind=Cooler)
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Seeing the upper level flow shift to the southwest today in response to a mid-upper level trough which is moving through the western U.S. The airmass ahead of this trough warmed up nicely today with late Tuesday afternoon 850mb temperatures of +4 to +6C and 925mb temps of around +12C. Highs across the area were in the 60s today with the usual (for this time of year) much cooler near 40 degree temps closer to Lake Superior due to a light easterly wind coming off the chilly lake.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. A chance for a few showers mainly in western-northern areas overnight but most of us should remain dry tonight. Lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Wednesday: Breezy and cool especially near Lake Superior where increasing northeast winds will gust 20 to 30 mph with high temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Inland locations will have highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Mostly cloudy skies Wednesday with a few showers around during the morning followed by possibly a steadier rain for the afternoon/evening hours. Note: There is some uncertainty on how much rain will fall, and how widespread the rain will be in our area Wednesday afternoon/night, but the consensus per model guidance would appear to be hitting east-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin the hardest with lower rainfall totals (more scattered rains) affecting northern Minnesota.
As low pressure lifts northeast into southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin Wednesday night colder air will get pulled into the low with temperatures aloft cooling enough for frozen precipitation, however, surface temps may not get quite cold enough for snow Wednesday night. It looks like there could be some locations in far northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin that do get a rain/snow mix Wednesday night-Thursday morning but with very little snow accumulation the way it looks now.
Thursday: Northerly winds with lingering clouds and possibly few showers as low pressure heads into the central/eastern Great Lakes. Highs Thursday in the 40s and 50s.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Breezy. A few showers with a steadier rain possible later in the day. High 42 to 47 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast 15 to 25 mph.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. High 48 to 53. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for April 17
Sunrise for April 17: 6:18 AM CDT
Sunset for April 17: 8:00 PM CDT