18z NAM model 5-12-19
Still can’t completely rule out a few spotty showers or sprinkles in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon but I think most of us will remain dry Monday.
High temps on Monday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will be pretty close to average, possibly a few degrees above average for May 13th.
18z NAM model 5-12-19
Northwest flow aloft will be in place the next few days. Will need to keep an eye on Tuesday afternoon/evening as a disturbance embedded in the NW flow passes through the upper Midwest, this coupled with a trough/cold front moving through later Tuesday could help generate scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms if there is enough instability present.
12z European ensemble model 5-12-19
I’ll be keeping an eye on model data the next few days to see if there are any changes in how the pattern sets up late this week, but right now it looks like it could be pretty miserable around here next weekend.
One thing that could keep us somewhat drier next weekend would be the high up near Hudson Bay Canada, but regardless if it rains or not, we’re still looking at several days with gusty east winds (20-25+ mph) and temps probably only around 40 degrees near Lake Superior given how the pattern appears to be setting up later this week.
Amazing to see such a large area covered by abnormally wet soil conditions (anywhere you see green on the map below) It’s good and bad, good news in that there’s virtually no threat of drought as summer approaches, but bad in that it’s causing a delay in planting crops across the Midwest, and is and will continue to produce flooding as long as we remain in this wet weather pattern.
Wet weather continues to delay planting of corn in the Midwest.
As of May 5, 2019
•Illinois was 56% behind the five-year average.
•Missouri, Indiana, Ohio and Minnesota were all 25% or more below the five-year average.
•The planting of sugar beets in Minnesota was 49% behind the five-year average, and in Michigan 37% behind the five-year average.
12z European computer model 5-12-19
The pattern for late this week/next weekend (May 17-20) isn’t a good one for locations near Lake Superior. Looks like will have several days in a row with potentially strong/chilly east winds near Lake Superior from May 17-20, the culprit, an area of low pressure to our southwest and high pressure near Hudson Bay Canada. A tight pressure gradient could develop between the low and high which could lead to gusty NE winds near Lake Superior.
The map below is the temperature anomaly forecast valid from May 17 to May 20. Blue and green colors indicate below normal temperatures while orange and red colors indicate above normal temperatures. Note: If you want warmer weather, head to southern Minnesota next weekend, temperatures in that area could be in the 70s, possibly as warm as the 80s!
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from May 12, 2019.
Mid/upper level low continued to impact the upper Midwest today with spotty rain showers across the Northland. A steadier rain was found in central/northern Illinois late this Sunday afternoon closer to the center of the upper level low.
Temperature departure map for the week of May 5, 2019. Cool May continues with another week that featured average temperatures that were below normal in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Precipitation departure map for the week of May 5, 2019. Above normal precipitation in most of northwest Wisconsin, and in northeast and east-central Minnesota with below normal precipitation in northern Minnesota.
Accumulated snowfall. Percent of mean for the week of May 5, 2019.
The snowstorm that hit parts of the Northland during the middle of last week was so unusual in the amount of snow that it dropped for this time of year. The purple colors on the map below represent snow totals that were some 750% above what would typically fall from May 5 to 11, off the charts!
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
May 5-11, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/5: 59 F/Normal
5/6: 51 F/-8 degrees below normal
5/7: 54 F/-6 degrees below normal
5/8: 48 F/-12 degrees below normal
5/9: 50 F/-10 degrees below normal
5/10: 57 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/11: 64 F/+3 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/5: 41 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/6: 31 F/-7 degrees below normal
5/7: 29 F/-9 degrees below normal
5/8: 33 F/-5 degrees below normal
5/9: 34 F/-5 degrees below normal
5/10: 35 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/11: 40 F/+1 degree above normal
Average temperature for the week of May 5: 44.7 degrees (-4.4 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 1.24 inches
Normal: 0.71 inches
Departure: +0.53 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of May 5, 2019
Temperature: 46.6 degrees
Departure: -6.9 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 1.09 inches
Departure: +0.40 inches above normal
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers or sprinkles early. Low 36 to 41. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind west 5 to 15 mph becoming east.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible especially later in the day. High 68 to 73. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 13
May 13 Sunrise: 5:37 AM CDT
May 13 Sunset: 8:34 PM CDT