Moisture and instability isn’t the greatest Tuesday with dew points generally in the 40s (possibly up around 50 degrees) CAPE of 100-500 J/kg, this combined with stronger NW flow aloft and an approaching cold front should be enough to cause scattered showers and a few thunderstorms especially Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. This activity should develop in north-central Minnesota then move south/east later Tuesday afternoon the way it looks now. Note: Severe weather is not expected Tuesday, but brief downpours, occasional lightning, gusty winds to 30 mph and possibly some small hail may accompany a few of the storms.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z HRRR model 5-13-19
Here’s how things could play out Tuesday per HRRR model (18z run from Monday)
Notice the line of showers and a few thunderstorms which could develop in north-central Minnesota Tuesday ~1-3 PM, this activity would then move farther south/east late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European ensemble model 5-13-19
A potentially wet/active weather pattern late this week through at least the middle of next week with multiple rounds of rain and possibly some thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. On average rainfall totals through May 28 of 2 to around 3 inches are possible in the Northland with higher amounts possible.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z European ensemble model 5-13-19
The upcoming weather pattern is a volatile one that could include a couple of severe weather/tornado outbreaks across the Plains, and some of this severe weather could also impact portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest especially late this week/this weekend.
The forecast below shows the 500mb pattern valid through May 23. A classic west coast trough, east coast ridge pattern with low pressure systems ejecting out of the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft with warm, moist and unstable air east of the 500mb trough with strong winds aloft and favorable wind shear should be in place to produce periods of severe weather in the Plains late this week into next week.
Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
Low temperature forecast valid for Tuesday morning, May 14.
Above normal lows tonight in the 40s although a few of the typical cold spots could dip into the 30s.
Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
Temperature forecast valid for Tuesday afternoon, May 14.
Near to above normal highs Tuesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s, cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 41 to 46. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible mainly later in the day. High 68 to 73. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Cooler. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 56 to 61 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 14
High: 62
Low: 40
May 14 Sunrise: 5:35 AM CDT
May 14 Sunset: 8:36 PM CDT