Seeing good convergence near a cold front in the Northern Plains this Wednesday afternoon with strong heating and instability in place which is leading to a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening in the black outlined area on map.
This cold front will pass through the Northland late tonight-Thursday morning with a strong SW low level jet of 40-50 knots leading to warm air advection ahead of this front. The low level jet will also help in developing some elevated instability tonight, although the amount of CAPE will be much weaker in our area tonight compared to areas farther west, but there should be enough to produce a few thunderstorms.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-15-19
Another round of rain is forecast to move through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late this evening through early Thursday morning.
A few thunderstorms producing heavy downpours and occasional lightning are possible as well later tonight as elevated instability increases a bit while mid level lapse rates climb to ~7.0 c/km in parts of the area.
Rain should move out of the area by mid morning Thursday with the rest of Thursday looking dry.
12z European computer model 5-15-19
This would be incredible if we do get some more snow or even a rain/snow mix in parts of the Northland this weekend. Stay tuned!
As of Wednesday, May 15, the European and Canadian models are by far the most aggressive models in showing some wintry precipitation occurring in parts of the Northland this weekend.
Still some uncertainty on how things will play out this weekend as it will come down to the track of the surface low coming out of the Central Plains and whether or not a strong high to our north helps to keep this system and its heavier precipitation south of our area.
Computer models continue to show a potentially active/wet weather pattern for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest for the next week or so. The map below shows forecast precipitation totals only through Monday, May 20. More rain is possible beyond Monday, May 20.
12z European ensemble model 5-15-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid from May 17 through May 22.
Much cooler temperatures arrive on Friday, but especially this weekend. There is a chance that some locations in the Northland won’t get out of the 30s Saturday and Sunday, this chance is highest near Lake Superior. Keep in mind that normal highs in mid-May are in the mid 60s!
Blue, green and purple colors on map below indicate below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors indicate above normal temperatures
Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, May 16.
Southerly winds will keep overnight lows on the mild side tonight, ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s, cooler temps near Lake Superior.
High temperature forecast for Thursday, May 16.
Highs Thursday will range from the upper 50s in northern Minnesota to the low to mid 70s in east-central Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin. Note: It’ll be a tad breezy Thursday with north-northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers possible mainly late. A thunderstorm is also possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind east 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest toward dawn.
.Thursday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind southwest becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Lake breeze returns. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 16
May 16 Sunrise: 5:33 AM CDT
May 16 Sunset: 8:38 PM CDT