18z NAM-WRF model 5-16-19
Most of Friday looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with some sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Rain spreads SW-NE into the Northland Friday night.
Note: Radar forecast below is valid from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM Sunday.
Check out these temperatures from late Thursday afternoon. Low 90s as far north as north-central Iowa!
Note: Des Moines, Iowa set a new record high for May 16 of 91 degrees, this is nearly +20 degrees above normal for the date. Previous record high for May 16 was 90 degrees set in 1939, 1936 and 1894.
12z European model 5-16-19
850mb temperature anomaly and surface forecast valid for Sunday, May 19, 2019.
Low confidence forecast on Sunday with differing solutions per model data today.
One of the better performing models, the European has been showing a snow event or a rain-snow event impacting parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota and most of northern Wisconsin on Sunday with even a potential for some snow accumulation.
The NAM model which did a great job with the last snow event that hit our area a few weeks ago has been flip flopping quite a bit with Sunday’s event. The 06z run from early Thursday morning agreed with the European model with some snow or a rain-snow mix, but the 12z and 18z runs today have pushed things farther south, keeping most of the precip south of the North Shore and Twin Ports areas on Sunday.
Either solution is plausible at the moment. High pressure sitting north of our area will feed dry air south and down Lake Superior which could help keep the precipitation south of Lake Superior on Sunday, while the Euro solution seems a little aggressive in the amount of precip they are showing given the overall setup. Stay tuned.
12z European model 5-16-19
There is a chance that high temperatures climb into the 70s, possibly up around 80 degrees Saturday afternoon in extreme southern Minnesota or along the Minnesota-Iowa border. Much colder temperatures farther north with some locations around Lake Superior possibly struggling to get out of the 30s! Note: Pretty good chance Duluth will have a top 5 coldest high temperature on record for both Saturday and Sunday, May 18-19.
Pattern appears to be locked and loaded through the rest of this month with a strong ridge across the southeast U.S. and a trough across the Rockies and Plains with several low pressure systems lifting NE out of the western U.S. through next week, this type of pattern will be a wet one for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest with a risk of significant amounts of rain which could lead to more flooding in parts of the region.
Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, May 17.
Lows tonight mainly in the 30s with a few spots in northern Minnesota possibly dropping into the 20s, below normal for mid-May.
High temperature forecast for Friday, May 17.
Cool spot on Friday will be around Lake Superior with highs in the 40s and 50s along with easterly winds 5 to 15 mph which will increase to 10 to 20 mph later in the day.
Farther inland highs Friday will be in the 60s which is right around normal for mid-May.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind north to northeast 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A cool lake breeze. High 54 to 59 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Windy and very cool. Rain and drizzle possible along with some fog. High 38 to 43. Wind east to northeast 15 to 30 mph. Note: Coldest high temperature on record for May 18 is 36 degrees set in 1890.
Normal temperatures for May 17
May 17 Sunrise: 5:32 AM CDT
May 17 Sunset: 8:39 PM CDT