18z NAM-WRF model 5-17-19
Note: Radar forecast below is from 10 PM this Friday evening to 10 PM Saturday.
Rain will spread SW-NE across the Northland later this evening/overnight.
More rain and drizzle at times Saturday into Saturday evening.
A few thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Saturday mainly from east-central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures could become cold enough for the rain to mix with snow at times Saturday in far northeast Minnesota, mainly along the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
18z HRRR model 5-17-19
Could see a huge temperature contrast across Minnesota Saturday afternoon if a warm front lifts north into southern Minnesota, if this happens, then high temps could soar well into the 70s to around 80 degrees Saturday afternoon in far southern Minnesota while temps around Lake Superior struggle to get out of the 30s!
12z European computer model 5-17-19
A wet weekend ahead in most of the Northland with the exception to this in far northern Minnesota where much lower rain totals are forecast, generally around a tenth of an inch or less. Farther south precip totals ranging from around 0.75 to 2.00 inches are possible by Sunday night, and some of this could be in the form of snow!
A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday in far southern portions of the Northland, roughly along and south of a line from Hinckley to Shell Lake, large hail would be the main threat if severe weather develops. Note: A greater chance of severe weather Saturday in far southern Minnesota where a slight risk is in place.
12z European ensemble model 5-17-19
A persistent weather pattern locking in for the next week or so which includes a heat wave for the southeast U.S.; severe weather across the Central/Southern Plains; heavy rain and possible flooding over a large area from the Northern Plains, upper Midwest to the Central/Southern Plains.
12z European ensemble model 5-17-19
12z European computer model 5-16-19
•Still looking at the potential for a rain-snow mix and possibly a few hours of all snow on Sunday over a small portion of northeast or east-central Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin.
•Strong forcing and heavier precipitation rates will help cool the atmosphere on Sunday on the NW side of a surface low which is forecast to move NE out of east-central Iowa.
•Model guidance shows cold enough air at 850mb (-2 to -4C) and 925mb (0 to -1C) for frozen precipitation while near surface temperatures fall to between 34-37 degrees on Sunday. It’s looking likely that some parts of the area will see at least a rain-snow mix develop at times on Sunday with even a chance for a few hours of just snow. Whether or not there will be any snow accumulation is very uncertain as it will come down to snowfall intensity, and how long it snows for, but there is a chance for some snow accumulation over some portions of the Northland Sunday. Stay tuned.
An active weather pattern could linger through most of next week with multiple low pressure systems lifting northeast out of the Rockies.
Two systems this weekend followed by another toward the middle of next week and possibly another system sometime late next week/Memorial Day weekend.
Low temperature forecast valid for Saturday morning, May 18, 2019.
High temperature forecast valid for Saturday, May 18, 2019.
Record or near record cold high temperatures are possible in Duluth, Minnesota this weekend.
Coldest high temperature on record for May 18
36 degrees set in 1890 (129 years ago)
Coldest high temperature on record for May 19
38 degrees set in 1892 (127 years ago)
Note: Dating back to 1948 — The latest snowfall on record of at least 0.1 inch in Duluth occurred on May 28, 1965.
For those wondering, the average date for last snowfall of at least 0.1 inch in Duluth is April 26.
Looking back at snow stats for May 19 — Only 2 snowfall events have occurred in Duluth on May 19, they include 0.6 inches on May 19, 1971, and 0.2 inches on May 19, 1963.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Rain developing overnight. Low 36 to 41. Wind east to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
.Saturday… Windy. Occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some drizzle and fog possible. High 36 to 41. Wind east to northeast 15 to 30 mph.
.Sunday… Windy. Rain or a mix of rain and snow possibly changing to all snow. High 35 to 40. wind northeast 15 to 30 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 18
May 18 Sunrise: 5:31 AM CDT
May 18 Sunset: 8:40 PM CDT