Spotty showers through Tuesday; few rumbles Monday PM. Possible pattern change last week of June

/Issued 5:44 PM CDT, Sunday, June 16, 2019/

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, June 16, 2019.

Still seeing an upper level area of low pressure off to our northwest today, this system will continue its slow eastward track into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes through Tuesday.  This system will bring a few showers to the Northland tonight, Monday and again on Tuesday.  Note:  Some of us will probably remain dry through Tuesday, while others get some showers from time to time.  There is also a chance for a few thunderstorms especially on Monday as instability builds to around 100-500 J/kg with steepening mid level lapse rates to around 7.0 c/km.  Mid level winds are favorable for storm organization on Monday (30-50 knot westerly flow) with upper level winds 70 to around 100 knots over the area, the limiting factors for strong storms appears to be the lack of instability and moisture on Monday.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z HRRR model 6-16-19

Radar forecast valid from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM Monday.

The pattern we’re in remains favorable for the development of isolated to scattered showers through Monday evening, but widespread heavy rains are not expected, instead shower coverage will remain spotty, meaning some of us get hit, others get missed.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Conditions in the atmosphere have become favorable for the development of brief weak funnel clouds until around sunset in the dark red outlined area on map.  Note:  These types of funnel clouds are usually short-lived and weak and rarely reach the ground.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, June 17.

Another cool mid June night ahead with lows ranging from around 40 to the upper 40s.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, June 17.

Highs Monday will get back to where they should be for mid June with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, but it will be cooler once again near Lake Superior.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European ensemble model 6-16-19

Not much change in the upper level pattern this week.  Little if any chance that will get any very warm/hot temperatures into our area this week, instead we’re looking at below to near normal temps most of this week.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European ensemble model 6-16-19

There continues to be some signs showing up in long range model data for a pattern change during the last week of June.  An upper level ridge could develop across the Southern U.S. while possibly expanding north with time, this type of pattern if it develops would become favorable for clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms which would ride SW-NE on the north side of the upper ridge/capped airmass.  If this ridge can build far enough north, then the final week of June could turn quite warm and humid across the Plains, Ohio Valley, parts of the eastern U.S.; and possibly into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of June 9, 2019. 

Most of the area had below average temperatures last week, the exception to this was near Lake Superior (yellow and orange areas on map) with near to slightly above average temperatures.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of June 9, 2019.

Dry June continued last week with most of the Northland having below normal precipitation.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

June 9-15, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

6/9:  74 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/10:  74 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/11:  74 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/12:  66 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/13:  73 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/14:  77 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/15:  63 F/-8 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

6/9:  48 F/+1 degree above normal
6/10:  44 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/11:  43 F/-5 degrees below normal
6/12:  46 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/13:  40 F/-9 degrees below normal
6/14:  52 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/15:  48 F/-1 degree below normal

Average temperature for the week of June 9:  58.7 degrees (-0.4 degrees below normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation:  0.14 inches
Normal:  0.97 inches
Departure:  -0.72 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of June 9, 2019
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  61.6 degrees
Departure:  -3.1 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  0.69 inches
Departure:  -0.30 inches below normal

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Few showers possible overnight.  Low 41 to 46.  Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Few showers.  High 65 to 70, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  High 65 to 70.  Wind north to northeast 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for June 17

High:   71
Low:    50

June 17 Sunrise:  5:14 AM CDT
June 17 Sunset:   9:06 PM CDT

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