Cool tonight; mild and dry Friday; weather model chaos for Saturday

Rain chances diminishing for Saturday? Computer models are not helping very much when trying to come up with a forecast for Saturday. Big time differences are seen in model guidance for Saturday, with the European model keeping us dry in Duluth and nearby areas, with two areas of rain on Saturday, one well north of us, the other well south of us. The NAM-WRF model shows a different solution, showing widespread rain showers affecting Duluth and nearby areas Saturday afternoon-evening. Stay tuned!

Here is the 12z European model for Saturday showing two areas of rain, one in southern Minnesota, the other in far northwest into far Minnesota north into Ontario with little to no rain in between, that would include the Ogilvie area where a big modified race takes place Saturday evening (USMTS) at the Ogilvie Raceway.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

The 18z NAM-WRF model shows a totally different outcome to Saturday’s rain. This model shows the rain much farther north, impacting Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Duluth, Two Harbors, Brainerd, and all of northwest Wisconsin, with a heavier swath of rain affecting portions of west-central, central and eastern Minnesota on Saturday.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, Aug. 9, 2019.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, Aug. 9, 2019.

…Weather Summary…

Mainly clear and cool tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Northwest breezes 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to around 10 mph late.

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Friday with seasonable temperatures in the 70s. Winds will remain out of the northwest on Friday, but not as gusty as it was on Thursday, instead of 15 to 25 mph winds like we had Thursday, winds on Friday will be in the 10 to 15 mph range.

High pressure will move over the upper Midwest through Friday before moving off to the east on Saturday.

Saturday is a low confidence forecast at the moment. A cold front approaches from the northwest while a warm front sets up well to our south. The best instability and greatest moisture will likely be near the warm front on Saturday, and this is where the threat for heavy rain and stronger thunderstorms will be found, in other words no where near the Northland the way it looks now. For us locally, some rain showers are possible Saturday either with the approaching cold front or with some weak lift on the north side of a disturbance passing across southern Minnesota. Note: How warm we get on Saturday will be dependent on cloud coverage and rainfall, if we don’t get much rain, highs will likely be in the 70s to around 80 degrees, but if rain and clouds are more widespread we’re looking at highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Sunday looks dry at the moment with highs mainly in the 70s.

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