Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight over much of the Northland with the greatest risk of severe weather generally along and south of Highway 2, and especially from the Brainerd Lakes to Hinckley and Siren areas.
Hazards include large hail, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and lightning.
Stay Weather Aware tonight!
Link to the mesoscale technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1916.html
18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to become more widespread in the Northland during the night, the rain will end from W-E after 5 AM, but we could see a few pop-up showers develop Tuesday afternoon.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
Thunderstorms tonight will tend to develop and or track on the north side of the instability gradient.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Another reason why we should see showers and thunderstorms become widespread later this evening is due to the impressive dew point gradient which will range from the lower 70s in southern Minnesota to the 40s in northern Minnesota. An intensifying low level jet (winds at around 5000 feet) will advect that juicy airmass north out of southern Minnesota tonight.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Tonight’s system will move quickly to the E-NE and will exit the Northland to the east by late Tuesday morning.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, September 3. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
High temperature forecast for Tuesday, September 3
…Weather Summary…
Showers and thunderstorms tonight followed by a breezy Tuesday with a patchy frost threat Wednesday morning.
Broad scale lift will increase across the area tonight in response to a strong S-SW low level jet and with the approach of a surface low, warm front and cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread during the night with downpours and lightning.
Severe thunderstorms are also possible tonight, especially over southern portions of the Northland. This area will be on the north edge of greatest instability tonight while an EML (elevated mixed layer) advects steeper mid level lapse rates into central Minnesota tonight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main severe weather threats tonight, but with strong wind shear in place there is at least some risk for a tornado tonight especially along the i94 corridor in central Minnesota.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to low 60s.
A few showers are possible Tuesday but the steadier rains should end before sunrise. It’ll be a windy day on Tuesday as west to northwest winds increase to 15 to 30 mph. Cold air advection will occur behind an area of low pressure which moves out over Lake Superior during the afternoon. 850mb temperatures of +10 to +15C at 7 AM Tuesday are forecast to fall to around 0 to +5C by 7 PM Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the 50s in northern Minnesota to the mid 60s to low 70s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
There is a chance for some patchy frost Wednesday morning especially away from Lake Superior, otherwise Wednesday looks dry with highs in the 60s.
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Thursday as a cold front moves through the Northland, this will be followed by generally dry weather Friday through Sunday with another chance for some frost Sunday morning.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms developing later this evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun) Isolated showers possible. High 62 to 67. Wind becoming west 15 to 30 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind west to southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Tuesday
- High 70
- Low 51
- Sunrise Tuesday 6:31 AM CDT
- Sunset Tuesday 7:45 PM CDT
Thanks for reading!
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