Cool tonight, isolated showers, areas of frost late; isolated showers near Lake Superior Friday; widespread rain Saturday

Frost Advisory issued for the North Shore and Arrowhead some cities included in the advisory are — Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Tofte, and Grand Marais.

Temperatures as low as 31 degrees. Widespread frost is expected to develop. Frost could kill sensitive vegetation.

Active storm track continues across the northern tier of the US through the weekend. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

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Map below shows precipitation totals during the last 24 hours, ending at 11 AM Thursday, October 3, 2019. Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Precipitation reports from Wednesday night-Thursday, October 2-3, 2019. Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu

  • Two Harbors, MN: 1.07″
  • Orr, MN: 0.98″
  • Bigfork, MN: 0.87″
  • Silver Bay, MN: 0.82″
  • Kabetogama, MN: 0.75″
  • Ely, MN: 0.71″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.68″
  • Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.68″
  • Littlefork, MN: 0.65″
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 0.65″
  • Washburn, WI: 0.65″
  • Saginaw, MN: 0.64″
  • Hill City, MN: 0.63″
  • Cass Lake, MN: 0.62″
  • Hibbing-Chisholm, MN: 0.62″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.62″
  • Cook, MN: 0.61″
  • Glidden, WI: 0.58″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.55″
  • Minong, WI: 0.53″
  • Clam Lake, WI: 0.51″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.45″
  • Brainerd, MN: 0.45″
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 0.43″
  • Siren, WI: 0.40″
  • Walker, MN: 0.35″
  • Moose Lake, MN: 0.34″

Hey it snowed this morning in northern Minnesota, it’s only October, how can it snow in October? Yet, getting snow in October in this area isn’t unusual at all, but it’s still a surprise to some, even for some that have lived in this area for years.

Radar image from 4:30 AM Thursday, October 3, 2019 showing the first snow of the season in portions of northern Minnesota (blue colors on map) Snowfall reports from Thursday morning include 1.6″ near Orr and 0.5″ in Bigfork.

Here’s a look at past October snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota (2000 through 2018) Note: Mean October snowfall is 2.3″.

Highest snowfall total during the month of October in Duluth since 2000 occurred in 2017 with 11.1 inches of snow.

  • 2000: Trace
  • 2001: 2.0″
  • 2002: 6.3″
  • 2003: 4.5″
  • 2004: Trace
  • 2005: 0.1″
  • 2006: 4.1″
  • 2007: Trace
  • 2008: 0.2″
  • 2009: 3.7″
  • 2010: 7.7″
  • 2011: Trace
  • 2012: 1.1″
  • 2013: 0.3″
  • 2014: 0.1″
  • 2015: Trace
  • 2016: Trace
  • 2017: 11.1″
  • 2018: 1.5″
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Our next system will move E-NE across the Northern Plains and through the upper Midwest this weekend. Should be a fairly strong system with widespread rains expected in the Northland on Saturday.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://www.pivotalweather.com

Seeing signs per long range model guidance for a cold end to next week as a rather large blob of cold Canadian air spreads south/east later next week. This could result in daytime highs only in the 30s and 40s in the Northland sometime between October 11-13. Stay tuned.

Source: 12z European model 10.3.19; https://www.pivotalweather.com

…Weather Summary…

Areas of frost expected in parts of the Northland overnight. One dry day Friday. Rain returns Saturday with a few lingering showers Sunday. Next week features a brief warm up early to mid week followed by what could be a very cold end to next week.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland tonight as high pressure passes over Minnesota. A few showers are possible mainly this evening. Lows will range from around 30 to 40 degrees with areas of frost expected to develop in parts of the area overnight. Winds will be out of the north at 5 to 15 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies on Friday with a chance for a few isolated lake effect showers along the North Shore as winds shift to the east. Highs on Friday will remain on the cool side with readings in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Winds will shift to the east-southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Southerly winds increase Friday night into Saturday on the backside of high pressure while low pressure and an upper level trough approach from the west. Warm air and moisture advection will develop Friday night and continue through Saturday, and with the low and trough approaching will see rain develop across the entire Northland from late Friday night into Saturday morning with some rain continuing through Saturday night.

The clouds and rain on Saturday will help keep daytime temperatures in the 40s.

Lingering showers are possible Sunday as strong low pressure lifts NE across Ontario. Gusty west/southwest winds 15 to 30 mph will be found over the Northland on Sunday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… A few showers early. Mostly cloudy with partial clearing possible. Patchy frost possible overnight. Low 33 to 38. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible in the morning. High 45 to 50. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Occasional rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

  • High 57
  • Low 39
  • Sunrise Friday 7:11 AM CDT
  • Sunset Friday 6:43 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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