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Saturday soaker; few lingering showers and windy Sunday; milder, sunnier weather next Monday-Tuesday; much colder late next week

Guess what? More rain is on the way! Saturday looks like a washout, good day to watch some college football if you’re into that kind of thing.

Here’s the setup for Saturday

Low pressure moves NE into northwest Minnesota with an occluded front (purple line on map) moving NE through the day, rain will taper off once the occluded front moves through, and this looks to occur late Saturday afternoon or evening in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Rainfall totals of around a half inch are forecast in most of the area by Saturday evening with some locations getting a little more or a little less than that.

Source: 12z European model; https://weather.us

The next system to affect the upper Midwest is moving through the Rockies today, and it looks rather potent on Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery.

Moisture is lifting NE out of the Central Plains today ahead of the approaching low and trough over the Rockies.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Radar forecast valid from 10 this evening to 10 PM Saturday. Looks like the main slug of rain which could include some downpours will move quickly NE through the Northland from roughly 4-11 AM Saturday, this will be followed by lingering light to possibly moderate showers Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening. Rain is forecast to taper off from west to east Saturday night.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://weather.cod.edu

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Tough to get a lot of sunshine at this time of year, and today was no different as most of the Northland had another gray day, although a pocket of clearing did develop this afternoon up around the Ely area, also some clearing in parts of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

Source: Goes-16 visible satellite imagery; https://weather.cod.edu

Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning, October 5. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Saturday, October 5.

Late next week still looks rather chilly per long range model data with colder temperatures spreading E-SE out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains around October 10-11. Note: Daytime highs in the Northland for next Friday and Saturday might only be in the 30s and 40s.

Source: 850mb temperature forecast, 12z European model 10.3.19; https://www.pivotalweather.com/

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…Weather Summary…

This evening will be dry in the Northland but rain chances will increase in western-southern areas after Midnight as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains.

Widespread rain is forecast Saturday morning transitioning to light rain and drizzle with a few scattered downpours Saturday afternoon/early evening as an occluded front swings NE through the Northland while low pressure heads NE into northwestern Minnesota.

This system will be quite dynamic with a period of good lift thanks to strong winds aloft with upper level winds ~100 knots and mid level winds of ~80 knots passing over the upper Midwest late tonight and Saturday. A strong low level jet of 40 to 55 knots will also be found ahead of this system which will lead to strong moisture advection in the Northland with precipitable water peaking in the 0.90 to 1.10 inch range Saturday morning.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s with 30s in the Arrowhead where some clearing will be found prior to Midnight. Highs Saturday will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Winds tonight and Saturday will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Note: Areas of fog are also possible on Saturday especially near Lake Superior.

Strong area of low pressure will move NE through Ontario on Sunday with gusty west-southwest winds to 30 mph occurring south of that low across the Northland. A few showers are also possible on Sunday. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

A nicer weather pattern is setting up for next Monday and Tuesday with some sunshine expected both days along with southwesterly breezes. Daytime highs next Monday and Tuesday should make a run at 60 degrees, and possibly into the 60s on Tuesday!

Mild temps may continue into next Wednesday but this will depend on the timing of the next trough and low pressure system approaching from the Rockies. If it moves slower, then next Wednesday should also be mild across the Northland.

Colder temperatures are possible toward late next week as a cold front moves through the region. How much precipitation we get later next week will depend on the track and strength of a low pressure system, and also how quick or slow it moves through. Might be a little snow as well late next week in some parts of the Northland, but this will depend on how fast the cold air moves in. So lots of uncertainty with the forecast for late next week, don’t believe any social media posts that may be floating around the next few days which talk about a potential winter storm for late next week.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain developing between 2-6 AM. Low 42 to 45. Wind east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday… Breezy. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. High 47 to 52. Wind east to southeast 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few afternoon showers. High 51 to 56. Wind southwest 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

  • High 57
  • Low 39
  • Sunrise Saturday 7:13 AM CDT
  • Sunset Saturday 6:41 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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