Watching Wednesday snow chances and a brief arctic blast for late this week

Our best shot for a little snow this week comes on Wednesday with amounts generally in the 1 to 2 inch range in the Northland, but higher amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior Wednesday night due to a period of lake enhanced/lake effect snow.

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Arctic air moves into the Northland late this week with dangerously cold wind chills expected from Wednesday night through Friday morning. Wind chill headlines will likely be needed for later this week.

Source: 12z European model 2.10.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

The good news if you don’t like frigid temperatures is that warmer weather looks to return by this weekend, and especially for next week when we could have a few days with high temperatures nearing 40 degrees in some parts of the Northland.

Both long range models (EPS and GEFS) show the warmer pattern for next week, although they differ slightly on the extent of above normal and below normal temps which isn’t too uncommon for something that is a week away.

Source: European ensemble model (EPS) 2.10.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Source: 12z GEFS model 2.10.2020; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, February 11th, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, February 11th, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Much of the Northland saw widespread/thick hoarfrost this morning, actually one of the better hoarfrost events I can remember in quite some time in Duluth this morning, beautiful stuff.

What is hoarfrost? Hoar frost, also hoarfrostradiation frost, or pruina, refers to white ice crystals deposited on the ground or loosely attached to exposed objects, such as wires or leaves.[4] They form on cold, clear nights when conditions are such that heat radiates out to the open air faster than it can be replaced from nearby sources, such as wind or warm objects. Under suitable circumstances, objects cool to below the frost point[5] of the surrounding air, well below the freezing point of water. Such freezing may be promoted by effects such as flood frost or frost pocket.[6] These occur when ground-level radiation losses[clarification needed] cool air until it flows downhill and accumulates in pockets of very cold air in valleys and hollows. Hoar frost may freeze in such low-lying cold air even when the air temperature a few feet above ground is well above freezing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/

A cold front moves through the Northland tonight with a few flurries and snow showers, otherwise will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens. Winds will be out of the west, northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Dry on Tuesday with seasonable temperatures in the 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected Tuesday.

An arctic front slices through the Northland from NW-SE on Wednesday. Should see some snow in the area on Wednesday due to this front moving through the area. Snow starts in northern Minnesota early Wednesday morning, then spreads farther south/east Wednesday afternoon. Snow ends Wednesday night from NW-SE.

Note: Looks like the snow will impact the Twin Ports mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening, so the Wednesday evening commute could be impacted by some snow and patchy blowing snow.

Short duration arctic air mass moves in Wednesday night, peaks on Thursday and then begins to exit on Friday. 850mb temperatures tumble to around -20 to -25C later this week. Daytime highs on Thursday are forecast to range from the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Thursday and Friday mornings in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A few flurries. Low 10 to 15. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 24 to 29. Wind becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Some snow especially in the afternoon and evening. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 28. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for February 11

High 23
Low 5

Sunrise Tuesday 7:20 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday 5:27 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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