Arctic air on the way! Some snow and blowing snow on Wednesday, winter weather advisory issued for the South Shore

Temperatures Wednesday morning will be ‘mild’ but an arctic front slices through during the morning-early afternoon with a burst of snow and a wind shift to the north with wind gusts to 30 mph, falling temperatures and some blowing snow. Note: Wind chill headlines will likely be needed at times for the Northland from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

Source: 12z European model 2.11.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Here’s my snowfall forecast for Wednesday.

Highest amounts along the South Shore of Lake Superior (4-8″) with lesser amounts of snow elsewhere. Thinking most of the area away from the South Shore will end up in the 1/2″ to 2.0″ range with computer models trending toward less precip (QPF) on Wednesday.

-Blizzard Warnings (red) and Winter Storm Watches (blue) are in effect for Wednesday across parts of west-central and southwest Minnesota due to strong gusty winds and whiteout conditions with blizzard conditions for several hours

-Winter Weather Advisory for the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin (purple area on map) Some cities included in the advisory – Superior, Port Wing, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Gile and Hurley. Snow and lake effect snow is likely in the advisory area from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Greatest snowfall accumulations will be east of the city of Superior. Gusty winds leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

Light snow will spread northwest to southeast across the Northland early Wednesday morning with snow lasting a couple of hours in any given location. Snow ends from NW-SE late Wednesday morning/afternoon, except along the South Shore where lake effect snow will continue into Wednesday night.

Note: Snow arrives in Duluth and Superior ~5 AM to 7 AM Wednesday with snow ending in the afternoon ~1 PM to 3 PM.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 2.11.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/

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Model differences are growing for next week in regards to temperatures. GEFS model has trended cooler today while the European ensemble model (EPS) remains much warmer. A case could be made that the GEFS has had a cold bias all winter, while the EPS has had a warm bias, so will see how these models trend in the next few days.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, February 12th, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, February 12th, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening will give way to increasing cloudiness later tonight as an arctic front moves SE through the Northland on Wednesday. Expect about a 6 hour period of mostly light snow as this front moves through Wednesday with the snow spreading from NW-SE. Behind this front, winds shift to the north with gusts to 30 mph causing areas of blowing snow.

Lows tonight will be in the single digits below to teens above zero. Highs on Wednesday in the teens and 20s, but temperatures will be falling throughout the day once the cold front moves through your location.

A bubble of cold, arctic air will be over the Northland Wednesday night through early Friday morning with 850mb temperatures bottoming out in the -20 to -25C range, as low as -28C per RAP model.

Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero. Highs on Thursday in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Highs on Friday in the teens.

Could be a light dusting of snow in parts of the Northland sometime Friday night or Saturday, then early next week will need to be watched as there could be another snow event somewhere in the upper Midwest, but model guidance is in very poor agreement right now as to where a system tracks in the Sunday night-Monday time frame. Stay tuned.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear with increasing cloudiness late. Low 14 to 19. Wind southwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday… Light snow developing 5-7 AM, ending 1-3 PM. Becoming breezy with areas of blowing snow. Total snowfall accumulations of a half inch to two inches. High 20 to 25 with falling temperatures. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph becoming north 15 to 30 mph.

.Wednesday night… Frigid. Breezy. Clearing. Low 13 below to 18 below. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills as low as 35 below.

.Thursday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 2 below to 3 above. Wind northwest northwest 10 to 20 mph. Morning wind chills as low as 35 below.

Normal temperatures for February 12

High 23
Low 5

Sunrise Wednesday 7:18 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday 5:28 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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