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Frigid through Friday morning, wind chill warnings and advisories in effect; another arctic blast possible early/middle part of next week

-Wind Chill Warning in effect until Noon Thursday for northern Minnesota including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Hibbing, Ely and Isabella. Wind chills as low as 45 below. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

-Wind Chill Advisory in effect until Noon Thursday for the North Shore and east-central Minnesota including the cities of Grand Marais, Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Duluth, Hill City, Aitkin, Brainerd, Cloquet, Moose Lake and Hinckley. Wind chills as low as 40 below. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

-Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 3 AM to Noon Thursday for all of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Superior, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Minong, Shell Lake and Hayward. Wind chills as low as 30 below. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

-Winter Weather Advisory in effect until Noon Thursday for the South Shore of Lake Superior including the cities of Port Wing, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley and Gile. Lake effect snow with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, mainly in northern portions of Ashland and Iron County. Plan on slippery road conditions.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

A decent setup is in place to send an arctic air mass south into the upper Midwest with high pressure building into the northern Rockies while low pressure moves northeast out of Tennessee.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

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Cooler trends continue to show up for next week, with the latest Euro ensemble model (EPS) caving toward the cooler GEFS solution for next week.

There is potential for at least 2 more brief arctic blasts which may affect the Northland late this weekend into the middle of next week.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 2.12.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Source: 12z GEFS model 2.12.2020; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

A quiet weather pattern looks to continue across the Northland for the next 2 weeks with no strong/consistent signals showing up in long range model guidance supporting any major weather system impacting our area through most of the rest of February the way it looks now.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 2.12.2020

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, February 13th, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Thursday, February 13th, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Well today’s snow event which wasn’t going to be much to begin with was even less than what was forecast to fall at least here in Duluth with only a trace of snowfall reported at the Airport, my forecast was for accumulations of 0.5 to 2.0 inches in Duluth today, couldn’t even get to the low end of that range.

As for the rest of the Northland, snowfall amounts were generally around an inch today, although there reports of 2 inches of snow near Celina and in Buyck today.

The good news the next few days is that we should see quite a bit of sunshine, the bad news is it will be cold, although with the sun being a little stronger now compared to a month ago, it might take the edge off the cold just a tiny bit, especially during the afternoon hours.

Lows tonight and Thursday night will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below with highs Thursday in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Highs on Friday will be in the teens to around 20 degrees.

North to northwest winds tonight and Thursday 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Winds shift to the south on Friday which will allow a milder air mass to move back into the Northland, in fact by Saturday afternoon temperatures could be up near 30 degrees or into the lower 30s in parts of the area.

Note: I’m keeping an eye on another shot of arctic air which may impact the Northland in the Sunday-Monday time frame, with possibly another shot of arctic air ~February 19th.

As for snow, I’m not seeing much of that around here. Maybe a few flurries or light snow showers at times, but no major winter storms looking out the next 2 weeks.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

*Wind Chill Advisory until Noon Thursday*

.Tonight… Breezy and bitterly cold. Clear. Low 16 below to 21 below. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills as low as 40 below.

.Thursday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 2 below to 3 above. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph. Morning wind chills as low as 40 below.

.Friday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 13 to 18. Wind south 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for February 13

High 23
Low 5

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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