Snow continues across northwest Wisconsin this evening; colder weather the next few days; warming up this weekend; storm potential next week

Snow, heavy at times will move east across northwest Wisconsin this evening with a quick 1 to 4 inches of accumulation possible.

Snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour are possible in the most intense snow bursts across northwest Wisconsin this evening.

The main swath of steadiest snow and greatest accumulation with tonight’s system will stretch from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin to central Upper Michigan where 4 to 7 inches of snow is expected tonight.

Snow that we’re seeing late this afternoon in the Twin Ports and areas farther south shouldn’t last very long as the band of snow is quite narrow and moving quickly to the east into northwest Wisconsin as of 5 PM Monday.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Radar loop through 5:15 PM Monday, February 17, 2020.

Snow (blue colors on map) is moving east while the snow in southern Wisconsin lifts east-northeast.

Note: Reports of 7.0 inches of snow today in New Ulm, Minnesota, and 5.0 inches of snow in St. James, and nearly 4 inches of snow in Buffalo and Monticello (southern/east-central parts of the state)

Source: https://www.wunderground.com/

Today’s snowfall has been very convective like, similar to heavy downpours we see during the spring and summer, the reason behind this are those steep mid level lapse rates along with some conditional instability which were over the upper Midwest today, if I’m talking about steep lapse rates and instability, I know spring can’t be far away even though it may not look like it right now.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Goes-16 visible satellite imagery from today also shows the convective like nature in today’s snowfall by the bumpy, lumpy, oatmeal like appearance in the clouds over southern/eastern Minnesota and southern/central Wisconsin.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Computer models remain in good agreement in shoving a milder Pacific air mass into the upper Midwest this weekend which should lead to high temperatures reaching into the middle 30s to lower 40s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Source: 12z European model 2.16.2020; https://www.ecmwf.int/

The pattern for next week continues to favor storm development across the Rockies and Plains. This system may impact the Northland sometime next week in the February 25-27 time frame. Stay tuned.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 2.17.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Computer models continue to show a system moving out of the Rockies and Plains next week, however the track, strength and timing of this system changes every 6-12 hours in model data which is actually quite typical for something that is a week away. The main takeaway is that something may be brewing for next week with snow, rain and mixed precipitation all possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin in the February 25-27 time frame.

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, February 18th, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, February 18th, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Snow will impact northwest Wisconsin this evening with a quick 1 to 4 inches of accumulation possible. This snow is being caused by an area of low pressure lifting NE out of southern Iowa while a trough extends to the north of that low. This system is starting to finally come together this afternoon with a quick hitting snow event hitting northwest Wisconsin this evening.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland tonight and Tuesday with scattered flurries possible overnight into Tuesday.

Lows tonight will range from the single digits below to lower teens above zero with highs Tuesday in the single digits and teens.

Even colder Tuesday night as arctic air moves into the area with lows in the teens and 20s below. Highs on Wednesday in the single digits and teens.

Note: The good news is that we should have lots of sunshine Wednesday and Thursday due to the cold/dry air mass over the area.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Light snow early, additional accumulations less than an inch. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Colder. High 13 to 18. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday night… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 11 below to 16 below. Wind west to northwest 10 to 20 mph. Note: Wind Chill Advisory may be needed.

.Wednesday… Cold. Sunshine. High 6 to 11. Wind west to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim