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Dry pattern continues across the Northland into early March; chilly through Friday; warmer weather returns this weekend

Maybe will get some more precip by May

I realize we have a long ways to go (snow depths still 1-2 feet in most of the Northland) but so far the best case scenario has been playing out with a real slow snow melt across the Northland as we head into spring. There’s a lot of water in this snow pack, so we need to stay dry as long as we can to diminish the threat for significant spring flooding, so far this is working out well since we haven’t really added much new snow to the existing snow pack, plus the pattern has turned very quiet around here, been a long time since our area has been impacted by a major weather system (late November/early December)

Note: No consistent signals showing up in model guidance which would support a more active weather pattern in our area through next week, and possibly through the 2nd week of March. So for now, the dry pattern continues, enjoy!

Source: 12z European ensemble model 2.26.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

A cold air mass will remain over the Northland through Friday, but that pocket of warmer air currently over south-central Montana will eventually work its way to the east just in time for the weekend. Note: Parts of Minnesota, most likely western/southern parts of the state could have highs in the 50s, perhaps close to 60 degrees on Sunday!

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

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Warm, cold, snowy winter in Duluth? Find out below.

Breaking down Meteorological Winter 2019-2020 for Duluth, Minnesota – These are preliminary stats thru February 25th.

Note: Meteorological winter is the period from December 1st through February 28th.

Preliminary Climate Stats for the 2019-2020 Winter Season (thru Feb. 25th)

Average Temperature: 16.1 degrees
Departure: +3.0 degrees above average

Total Precipitation: 4.24″
Note: Winter of 2019-2020 will likely finish ~1.38″ above average in the precipitation department.

Total Snowfall: 50.8″
Note: Winter of 2019-2020 will likely finish ~1.3″ above average in the snowfall department.

Number of Subzero nights: 24
Average is 35 subzero nights (1875-2019 Climate Period)

So to answer the question I asked above – This winter has been warmer than average in Duluth, while snowfall is running just slightly above average by about an inch.

Climate Stats for the 2018-2019 Winter Season (Dec. 1 to Feb. 28)

Average Temperature: 13.3 degrees
Departure: 0.0 degrees

Total Precipitation: 4.45″
Departure: +1.47″ above normal

Total Snowfall: 66.6″
Departure: +17.1 inches above normal

Number of subzero nights: 32
Average is 35 subzero nights (1875-2019 climate period)

Average temperature, departure from mean from December 1, 2019 to February 25, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Average temperature, departure from mean from December 1, 2018 to February 28, 2019.

Total Snowfall from December 1, 2019 to February 25, 2020.

Total Snowfall from December 1, 2018 to February 28, 2019.

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Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, February 27th, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Thursday, February 27th, 2020.

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland for Wednesday, February 25th, 2020

Source https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

2 SSW Poplar, WI: 4.3″
2 NNE Wentworth, WI: 4.0″
3 SSW Wentworth, WI: 3.0″
1 WSW Maple, WI: 2.9″
1 SE Hawthorne, WI: 2.0″
1 N Solon Springs, WI: 0.8″
7 ESE Superior, WI: 0.4″

…Weather Summary…

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area tonight and Thursday. Can’t rule out a flurry, or maybe more than one flurry, but most of us will remain dry.

Note: Some lake effect snow showers are possible tonight into Thursday morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior with generally light snowfall accumulations from northeast Douglas County to the Bayfield Peninsula east to the Hurley and Gile areas.

Lows tonight will range from the single digits above zero to the teens below zero. Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 20s.

Warmer temperatures look to return this weekend with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 30s and 40s.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 3 below to 2 above. Wind north to northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22. Wind north to northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 20 to 25. Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for February 27

High 28
Low 11

Sunrise Thursday 6:53 AM CST
Sunset Thursday 5:51 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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