Cold tonight; warmer weather returns this weekend, shot at 50 degrees Sunday

A chilly air mass will remain over the Northland tonight and Friday, but a warming trend takes place this weekend which could send high temperatures well into the 40s especially on Sunday when we may even see a few 50s in parts of the Northland.

Source: 12z European model 2.27.2020; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Mean date for the first 50 degree temperature in Duluth is March 20th (1875-2019 Climate Period)

Here’s a look at when Duluth recorded its first 50 degree temperature from 2000-2019.

2000: February 29
2001: April 13
2002: April 07
2003: March 14
2004: March 24
2005: March 06
2006: March 29
2007: March 12
2008: April 03
2009: March 15
2010: March 14
2011: February 16
2012: March 10
2013: March 30
2014: March 10
2015: March 09
2016: February 27
2017: February 17
2018: April 19
2019: March 21

-Since 2000, there have been 12 years which saw the first 50 degree temperature in Duluth occur before the mean date of March 20th (years in bold on list above)

-Since 2000, 4 years saw the first 50 degree temperature in Duluth occur during the month of February (2000, 2011, 2016 and 2017)

-Earliest first 50 degree temperature on record in Duluth occurred on January 14th, 1894.

-Latest first 50 degree temperature on record in Duluth occurred on May 1st, 1917.
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A cold air mass remains over the Northland tonight and Friday, but the warmer air currently off to the west will make its way into the Northland over the weekend. 850mb temperatures around -18C this evening will climb to around 0 to +4C by Saturday afternoon.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, February 28th, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Friday, February 28th, 2020.

Still looks mainly dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through most of next week. Sorry, no state hockey tournament blizzard in Minnesota this year, speaking of which, when is the last time we actually had a winter storm during that tournament? But all you hear about is well March is coming, time for a tournament blizzard, okay then. Big pet peeve of mind.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

…Weather Summary…

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland tonight and Friday.

A cold one tonight with lows falling into the single digits, teens and even some 20s below zero. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s.

Looks generally dry through the weekend with warmer temperatures. Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the 30s, then on Sunday high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s, with a chance for near 50 degree temperatures in some parts of the Northland, but this will depend on the extent of cloud cover, and timing of a cold front. Less clouds, later cold frontal passage=better chance for temps to climb toward 50 degrees Sunday afternoon.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Cold. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind north to northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 19 to 24. Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Partly to mostly sunny. Milder. High 34 to 39. Wind south to southwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for February 28

High 28
Low 11

Sunrise Friday 6:51 AM CST
Sunset Friday 5:52 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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