A little snow possible late tonight; watching Wednesday night-Thursday snow/mixed precip chances

System for later tonight is coming in a bit drier per model guidance, not that it looked very snowy to begin with.

Still should get some snow showers to move across north-central and northeast Minnesota later tonight into early Tuesday morning (blue colors on loop below) but snowfall accumulations should only range from a trace to half an inch with this system.

Simulated radar valid from 6 PM this evening to Noon Tuesday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 3.2.20; https://weathermodels.com/

A few isolated thunderstorms managed to develop over parts of west-central North Dakota this afternoon while some light snow is falling near a warm front in northwest Minnesota.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

You can sorta see a little twist in the clouds in northern North Dakota this afternoon on Goes-16 satellite imagery, this is the system which will move across the Northland later tonight. Also note the darkening that occurs from east to west on this loop as sunset approaches, pretty cool!

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

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A stronger system could impact portions of the Northland during the Wednesday night and Thursday time frame with a few inches of snow possible across northern Minnesota and possibly over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Note: Based on model forecast storm tracks, the greatest chances for a few inches of snow with the midweek system are north of Duluth and Superior.

This weekend continues to look mild as a large ridge builds east into the upper Midwest. I think will have widespread 40s and 50s for daytime highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this weekend, but models disagree on which day will be warmest as that will depend on the timing of a cold front. Note: 60s are possible in parts of western and southern Minnesota this weekend.

Note: The area of below average temperatures in northwest Canada are forecast to move south/east into the Northland early next week (March 9-10)

I’m also keeping an eye on low pressure development which may occur Sunday night and Monday, if this low is close enough to our area and is able to interact with colder air, then we could see an area of snow or possibly even some freezing rain affect portions of the Northland Sunday night and Monday. Stay tuned.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 3.2.20; https://weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, March 3rd, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Low pressure will pass north of our area tonight and Tuesday. Warm front attached to this low swings west to east through the Northland tonight, followed by a cold frontal passage from north to south Tuesday afternoon. Weak lift and a little moisture will accompany this system which should cause some snow showers to break out across north-central and northeast Minnesota later tonight, lingering into early Tuesday morning.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s with southerly winds 10 to 20 mph.

A few spotty snow or rain showers are possible across the area on Tuesday although I think most of us will remain dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 30s. Gusty west to northwest winds for Tuesday at 15 to 30 mph.

Mainly dry on Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

Snow or some mixed precipitation returns to the Northland for Wednesday night and Thursday.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or flurries possible after Midnight. Little accumulation expected. Low 23 to 27. Wind south to southwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible. High 32 to 37. Wind west to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 33 to 37. Wind west to southwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 3

High 29
Low 12

Sunrise Tuesday 6:44 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday 5:58 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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