Keeping an eye on a weekend storm which could bring snow and rain to parts of the Northland

-Quiet weather in the Northland the next few days, but this weekend could turn a wee bit interesting!

-Computer models continue to show an area of low pressure moving out into the Plains Friday into Saturday morning, this system could then take aim at the Northland Saturday afternoon through Sunday as low pressure lifts NE and possibly deepens as it does so.

-Computer models continue to disagree on the track of the low, however, with the GFS and Canadian guidance forecasting a more southerly storm track (less phasing) resulting in more rain than snow, while most of the precip falls from southern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin.

-Other computer models, like the UK and Euro have the storm tracking farther NW leading to a spring snowstorm in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this weekend.

-Gusty NE winds are also possible with this storm, especially Saturday into Sunday morning.

It’s been a wet day across southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin as an area of rain with some heavier downpours affects those areas today. Colder air on the back edge of this system has also led in the rain switching over to some wet snow today in southwest Minnesota.

MRMS radar loop ending at 5:10 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 25, 2020.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Did see a few thunderstorms develop late last night-early this morning near and south of the Interstate 94 corridor in central Minnesota, also saw a few thunderstorms today in parts of western/central Wisconsin. Note: The colored dots on the map below represent lightning strikes over the past 24 hours.

Source: https://www.lightningmaps.org/

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Tuesday’s system really didn’t bring a whole lot of precipitation to the Northland as rainfall totals remained very light, generally ranging from a trace to around 0.10 inches in most of the area.

Note: Duluth Airport picked up a trace of rain on Tuesday while International Falls picked up 0.02″ of rain with 0.10″ of rain reported at Kabetogama.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, March 26, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Thursday, March 26, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Seeing a strong baroclinic zone across the US today with temperatures ranging from around 30 degrees in eastern South Dakota to 90 degrees in western Texas. 850mb temperatures Wednesday afternoon ranged from -6C in central North Dakota to +24C in the Texas Panhandle per RAP model guidance. With such a strong temperature contrast in place, it’s no surprise we’re seeing some active weather today in parts of the upper Midwest, and expect that to continue at times through Thursday night, but all of this rain or snow will stay south of the Northland through Thursday night.

Our area should stay mainly dry through Thursday night under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with single digits possible in far northern Minnesota. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 30s to middle 40s. North, east or south winds are expected tonight and Thursday at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday looks mainly dry across the Northland with highs in the 40s except for 30s along the North Shore.

Note: This weekend could turn wet and white in parts of the Northland, and the big warmup for next week has pretty much disappeared per model guidance, although it still looks like we could have a day or two in the 40s and 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin next week, but doubtful will see our first 60s of the year the way it looks now. Models like to tease early season warmups, but most of the time they back away from it as the models get a better handle on the atmospheric pattern.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast 5 to 15 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim