Scattered showers late tonight through Tuesday (patchy freezing rain/sleet early Monday AM) few t-storms possible Tuesday AM; watching snow chances for late this week

Scattered rain showers are possible over parts of the Northland late tonight into Monday, there is also a chance for patchy sleet or freezing rain overnight into Monday morning, mainly along the North Shore and across the Arrowhead.

Simulated radar valid from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM Monday.

Source: 18z HRRR model 4.5.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Advertisements

Another day featuring widespread sunshine across the Northland, but we’re beginning to see some clouds approach from the west/southwest late this afternoon.

Source: Goes-16 visible satellite 4.5.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

Goes-16 water vapor imagery shows a strong low slowly approaching California today while that pesky subtropical jet continues to be very strong as it stretches from the Baja region across the southern US.

There is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms (green shaded area on map) from late Monday night into Tuesday morning across parts of the Northland, mainly from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, but this risk extends farther south as well. Note: Any storm that develops during the aforementioned time period is forecast to remain below severe limits.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

One of the reasons as to why we could have a few thunderstorms around here early Tuesday morning is due to the pocket of steep mid level lapse rates of 7.0-8.5 c/km which were over the Western High Plains today, these will advect ENE into parts of the Northland by Monday night.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The week ahead will feature near to slightly warmer than average temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but big changes are coming by next week as that area of below average temperatures which will be over west-central Canada this week expands while spilling south of the border.

Note: Normal highs in the Northland this week range from the middle to upper 40s, normal lows are in the middle to upper 20s.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.5.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, April 6, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Monday, April 6, 2020.

Advertisements

Here’s a look at the temperature anomaly forecast for next week.

Widespread below average temperatures represented by the blue and green colors on the map.

Looks like mid-April will be a chilly one for a large portion of the US. The only areas that are forecast to have above average temperatures next week are over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and in most of Florida.

Note: Normal highs across the Northland in mid-April are around 50 or in the lower 50s with normal lows are around 30 degrees. Won’t be anywhere close to normal if the models verify!

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.5.2020

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for March 29 to April 4, 2020.

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

3.29: 47 F/+7 degrees above normal
3.30: 42 F/+2 degrees above normal
3.31: 38 F/-3 degrees below normal
4.1: 40 F/-1 degree below normal
4.2: 49 F/+7 degrees above normal
4.3: 42 F/-1 degree below normal
4.4: 40 F/-3 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

3.29: 33 F/+10 degrees above normal
3.30: 30 F/+7 degrees above normal
3.31: 24 F/Normal
4.1: 27 F/+3 degrees above normal
4.2: 32 F/+8 degrees above normal
4.3: 20 F/-5 degrees below normal
4.4: 15 F/-10 degrees below normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth for the week of March 29, 2020: 34.2 F; +1.5 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total Precipitation: 0.94″
Normal: 0.41″
Departure: +0.53″ above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 29, 2020

Temperature: 38.1 F
Departure: +1.8 degrees above normal

Precipitation: 1.06″
Departure: +0.59″ above normal

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of March 29, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of March 29, 2020.

Total precipitation, percent of mean for the week of March 29, 2020.

Note: It was very wet across much of the Northland last week, thanks in part to the strong storm which hit parts of the area last Sunday. Precipitation totals for the week were some 300-400% of normal in the light blue and pink areas on the map below.

…Weather Summary…

After a sun filled weekend, the next few days will turn a little more unsettled, but no major systems are expected in our area this week.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight. Some light rain and patchy freezing rain/sleet will develop later on as warm air advection increases. Lows tonight will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s with east to southeast winds 5 to 15 mph.

Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies Monday with scattered rain showers. Patchy freezing rain/sleet is also possible mainly early along the North Shore and over the Arrowhead. Highs on Monday ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s with highs of 35-40 near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

Low pressure along with its cold front will move quickly east out of the Dakotas Monday night while a warm front lifts NE out of northern Iowa. This system will exit the Northland by Tuesday afternoon.

Scattered showers are expected over most of the Northland Monday night and Tuesday, and a few thunderstorms are also possible late Monday night through Tuesday morning as elevated CAPE increases to around 100-500 J/kg.

Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s.

Will see another fast moving system move through the upper Midwest on Wednesday with a possibility for a few rain or snow showers in our area along with gusty west or northwest winds 15-30 mph.

Note: There is a chance for a little snow late this week (Friday-Saturday time frame) according to the European model, but other forecast models aren’t on board with the Euro, at least not yet. Stay tuned.

Advertisements

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Increasing cloudiness. Showers possible overnight. Patchy sleet or freezing rain showers also possible. Low 29 to 33. wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Scattered showers possible. Patchy sleet or freezing rain showers also possible early. Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun) High 37 to 42. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible mainly in the morning. A thunderstorm also possible. Decreasing cloudiness late. High 45 to 50. Wind east 10 to 15 mph becoming west 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 6

High 44
Low 26

Sunrise Monday 6:37 AM CDT
Sunset Monday 7:46 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Leave a Reply