Scattered showers/few t-storms late tonight and Tuesday AM; breezy and mild with some sun Tuesday afternoon

*Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of west-central Minnesota, southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota for tonight (dark green area on map) Note: This risk area extends into western portions of the Northland, including the Walker, Pine River and Brainerd areas. The main threat is from hail, possibly reaching severe criteria (1.00″ diameter/quarter size)

*Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later tonight into Tuesday morning. (light green area on map)

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Elevated CAPE is increasing over parts of the Dakotas and southwest Minnesota this afternoon with values ranging from 100 to 1000 J/kg.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

To go along with the elevated CAPE, we have some steep mid level lapse rates of 7.0 to 8.5 C/km. The combination of the steep lapse rates and some elevated CAPE will help generate a few thunderstorms later tonight.

Source: RAP model

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Tuesday.

Best chances for some rain across the Northland will be late tonight into Tuesday morning. Precipitation ends from W-E with generally dry conditions for Tuesday afternoon.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 4.6.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Rainfall totals of around a quarter to half inch are possible over much of the Northland late tonight-Tuesday morning, but locally higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms occur.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Goes-16 visible satellite imagery was picking up quite a few cool things this morning.

1: Remaining snow pack over eastern North Dakota after last week’s winter storm (yellow outlined area)

2: An area of mid level clouds, possibly some ACCAS across central Minnesota (pink outlined area) as steeper lapse rates approach from the SW.

3: Widespread low clouds/stratus across southern Minnesota as low level moisture increases.

4: High level clouds/cirrus spreading NE out of the Northern Rockies on southwesterly flow aloft.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

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Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, April 7, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Here are a few pictures and a video I took today of Miller Creek located in the Lincoln Park neighborhood (Duluth, Minnesota) Water levels are running on the high side due to recent snow melt and precipitation.

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Computer models are still showing a colder weather pattern developing by next week with widespread below average temperatures across much of the US (green and blue colors on the map)

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.6.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

…Weather Summary…

Low pressure and cold front will move east out of the Northern Plains tonight while a warm front across southern Minnesota lifts ENE. This entire system will exit off to the east by Tuesday afternoon.

Scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move across the Northland late tonight into Tuesday morning. Downpours and occasional lightning will be the main hazards from this activity, but there is also a risk for some hail especially around the Brainerd Lakes area as that area will be closer to the instability gradient later tonight.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 30s to middle 40s with lower 30s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue Tuesday morning, but nicer weather returns with some sunshine by Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from 50s to lower 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore. East winds early shift to the northwest with gusts of 15 to 25 mph.

Another cold front moves across the Northland late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning but not expecting much precipitation with this one, a few spotty showers and that should be about it. It will be rather breezy on Wednesday with northwest winds gusting to around 30 mph. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Rain showers developing after Midnight. An isolated thunderstorm also possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Breezy. Rain showers early with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. Mostly cloudy with some sunshine in the afternoon. High 55 to 60. Wind east 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest 15 to 30 mph.

.Wednesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible early. High 43 to 48. Wind west to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 7

High 45
Low 26

Sunrise Tuesday 6:35 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday 7:47 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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