A cool week ahead; some rain possible Tuesday mainly west/south areas of the Northland

-Monday’s weather across the Northland will feature below normal temperatures, but dry weather with highs in the 40s near Lake Superior and in the 50s to around 60 degrees for inland locations. Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

-The system I’ve been watching for Tuesday has been trending further west/south in model data thanks to more influence from the Hudson Bay high which pushes a drier air mass into areas near Lake Superior, this helps keep the rain focused over western, central and southern Minnesota from late Monday into Tuesday, while locations closer to Lake Superior including Duluth and Superior remain generally dry on Tuesday the way it looks now.

-Chances for some rain increase the further west you go on Tuesday with some rain possible along and west of a line from about International Falls to Grand Rapids to Hinckley. Note: It’s still possible will see this rain area shift a bit more west or east in model guidance over the next 24 hours.

-As for the chances for some snow or a wintry mix in parts of the Northland on Tuesday, those chances look less today compared to the last few days as temperatures although on the cool side look just warm enough to keep precipitation in the form of rain on Tuesday.

Here’s the simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday which shows the rain spreading east into parts of the Northland, but then the rain hits that wall of dry air coming off Lake Superior.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 5.3.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

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One of the bigger weather stories this week will be the strong upper level low (Polar Vortex like) which is forecast to drop SE out of Hudson Bay and Ontario later this week. A cold air mass will accompany this feature as it dives SE while the flow aloft comes out of the N/NW, overall this just isn’t a good pattern to be in if you want warm temperatures!

Source: 12z European ensemble model 5.3.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

For those wanting persistent warm temperatures, you’re gonna have to wait a while longer as the week ahead looks chilly for early May!

Note: Normal highs in the Northland this week are right around 60 degrees on May 4th, warming to the lower 60s by May 9th. Normal lows this week are in the middle to upper 30s. Likely won’t be seeing any 60s near Lake Superior this week.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 5.3.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for April 26th to May 2nd, 2020

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

4.26: 55 F/Normal
4.27: 63 F/+8 degrees above normal
4.28: 42 F/-14 degrees below normal
4.29: 62 F/+6 degrees above normal
4.30: 66 F/+9 degrees above normal
5.1: 64 F/+7 degrees above normal
5.2: 68 F/+10 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

4.26: 34 F/Normal
4.27: 35 F/Normal
4.28: 37 F/+2 degrees above normal
4.29: 39 F/+3 degrees above normal
4.30: 39 F/+3 degrees above normal
5.1: 46 F/+10 degrees above normal
5.2: 43 F/+6 degrees above normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth for the week of April 26, 2020: 49.5 degrees; +3.7 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total Precipitation: 1.13″
Normal: 0.69″
Departure: +0.44″ above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of April 26, 2020

Temperature: 53.6 degrees
Departure: +3.5 degrees above normal

Precipitation: 0.54″
Departure: -0.15″ below normal

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of April 26, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of April 26, 2020.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind becoming east around 10 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 44 to 49 but cooler near Lake Superior. wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind east to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 4

High 58
Low 37

Sunrise Monday 5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Monday 8:24 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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