Isolated showers tonight; mainly dry Friday through the weekend with breezy/cool NE winds near Lake Superior and warmer temps inland

A few showers will continue to move across parts of the Northland tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible mainly this evening with weak instability over the area. Could see some patchy fog redevelop during the night, especially near lake Superior.

Friday looks like a nice spring day. Some sun, north winds and highs in the 60s.

Good news – Bad news for this weekend.

Good news is that this weekend’s system is trending farther south as the Hudson Bay high develops once again which will help keep the rain south of Duluth and Superior and most of the Northland for Saturday and Sunday, but this pattern will also lead to a breezy NE wind and cool temperatures near Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday, but farther inland temperatures won’t be bad at all (60s and maybe even a few lower 70s)

Bad news is the pattern into next week looks rather dry once again across much of the Northland, and with warmer temperatures moving in, the fire danger may increase especially if we have gusty winds and low relative humidity values accompanying the warmer temps.

An Omega Block is forecast to develop across the US this weekend into the middle of next week with a very amplified/slow moving weather pattern. For us in the Northland, will be under the ridge, meaning generally dry weather and warmer weather for next week.

At the moment it looks like will have high temps in the 60s and 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin next week, with a chance for even warmer temps (80s?) around May 20-21. Note: Temperatures near Lake Superior may be quite a bit cooler next week as it looks like will keep an easterly wind going for most of next week.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 5.14.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

A pocket of cold air aloft associated with a mid level low over northwestern Minnesota will be moving east across northern Minnesota tonight.

Here’s how the mid level low looks on Goes-16 water vapor imagery, note the swirl heading east across northwest Minnesota this Thursday afternoon.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this evening over portions of northern Minnesota (dark green shaded area on map) Hail approaching severe criteria or 1″ (quarter size) is the main threat.

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over the rest of the Northland.

Turned into a pretty nice day once the fog/low clouds eroded. Temperatures Thursday afternoon were in the 60s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin while Brainerd has climbed to 71 degrees at 4 PM. A light lake breeze kept temps cooler closer to lake Superior (40s and 50s)

24-Hour Rainfall Totals from around the Northland ending 7 AM Thursday, May 14, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

International Falls, MN: 0.32″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.30″
2 E Celina, MN: 0.29″
Babbitt, MN: 0.27″
5 E Ely, MN: 0.24″
Cook, MN: 0.24″
Embarrass, MN: 0.23″
Duluth Airport: 0.21″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.17″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.15″
Hibbing, MN: 0.15″
Hurley, WI: 0.15″
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 0.15″
Bruno, MN: 0.14″
Ashland, WI: 0.12″
Cotton, MN: 0.12″
3 E Wright, MN: 0.11″
Brainerd, MN: 0.10″
Floodwood, MN: 0.10″
Hayward, WI: 0.08″
Butternut, WI: 0.06″

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Isolated showers this evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind variable around 10 mph becoming northwest.

.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind northwest to north 10 to 20 mph becoming east late.

.Saturday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 56 to 61 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 15

High 62
Low 40

Records for May 15

High: 88 degrees set in 1931
Low: 26 degrees set in 2004

Sunrise Friday 5:33 AM CDT
Sunset Friday 8:38 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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