Warm through Sunday; a few showers/isolated t-storms late tonight and Friday

A warm weather pattern continues into this weekend with more 80 degree high temperatures likely for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Winds are forecast to become easterly by Sunday which will result in slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior by late this weekend.

There is a risk for a few showers or thunderstorms late tonight and on Friday, but overall the pattern remains a dry one through Sunday. Rainfall totals for tonight through Friday are forecast to range from around a tenth to a quarter inch, but locally higher amounts are possible if you get underneath a thunderstorm.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in our area is very low for tonight and Friday. Storms that do develop will be capable of producing brief downpours and some lightning, but that should be about it.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.25.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Strong to severe thunderstorms are erupting this afternoon over parts of the Dakotas. As these thunderstorms move farther east tonight they are expected to weaken quite a bit as they run into lesser instability, wind shear and moisture.

Source: Goes-16 sandwich loop 6.25.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM this evening (yellow shaded area on map) for eastern North Dakota and extreme northwest Minnesota.

Here’s comes tonight and Friday’s weather maker which will affect the Northland as it heads east out of the northern Rockies, unfortunately it doesn’t appear that will be getting a whole lot of rain with this one.

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Not much change in this week’s drought monitor for Minnesota with 17% of the state in D1 or Moderate Drought (orange shaded area on map) 47% of the state is abnormally dry (yellow area on map)

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Far northwest Wisconsin remains in abnormally dry conditions in this week’s drought monitor update (yellow area on map)

Not much relief in the dry weather pattern across the Northland with below normal precipitation forecast thru at least July 10th.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 6.25.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin remains in a Slight Risk area for Excessive Heat from July 3rd thru July 9th.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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