Scattered showers and a few t-storms Friday (strong storms possible in northern Wisconsin late Friday afternoon)

Low 80s in Duluth the last two days, but today temperatures didn’t get out of the 50s thanks to a gusty northeast wind and widespread cloudiness. A cool NE wind will continue near Lake Superior tonight along with some drizzle and fog which could persist into Friday morning.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Warm air is still out there today, but it has been pushed further west and south of our area, but it will make an attempt to lift NE getting into at least eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Friday as these areas could be up into the 70s Friday afternoon, but it will be cooler farther north and also near Lake Superior.

18z NAM 3km radar forecast valid from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

Greatest chances for some showers on Friday look to be over northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with the rain chances in northwest Wisconsin not coming until late Friday afternoon or Friday evening, this area will also have a chance for a few strong thunderstorms during the aforementioned time period. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats if strong storms develop.

Note: A few showers are possible in Duluth on Friday mainly during the afternoon and early evening, but the greatest chances for rain are expected to remain north and east of the Twin Ports on Friday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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A look at radar estimated rainfall totals from Wednesday night and Thursday morning, September 23-24, 2020.

Note: The greatest amounts of rain with last night’s event were south of the Twin Ports, generally from the Brainerd Lakes east to Hinckley and into portions of northwest Wisconsin where a half inch to over an inch of rain fell last night.

Rainfall Reports from Wednesday night and Thursday morning, September 23-24, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Barnes, WI: 1.81″
Breezy Point, MN: 1.50″
Aitkin, MN: 1.06″
Poplar, WI: 0.95″
South Range, WI: 0.69″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.56″
Minong, WI: 0.51″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.48″
Esko, MN: 0.47″
Danbury, WI: 0.43″
Cloquet, MN: 0.39″
Siren, WI: 0.35″
McGregor, MN: 0.31″
Washburn, WI: 0.30″
Glidden, WI: 0.29″
Saginaw, MN: 0.28″
Hayward, WI: 0.28″
1 W Bayfield, WI: 0.27″
Ashland, WI: 0.24″
Superior Airport: 0.19″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.17″
Bruno, MN: 0.05″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.04″
Brainerd, MN: 0.03″

Rainfall forecast thru Saturday evening – Greatest amounts forecast to be over far northern Minnesota and over portions of northwest Wisconsin (yellow outlined areas on map) potential for around a half inch or more of rain in those areas.

Note: 0.64″ of rain so far this month in Duluth. September 2020 still has a chance to finish in the top 10 driest Septembers on record.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

An early look at Saturday’s setup – Doesn’t look like will see a widespread all day rain in the Northland Saturday, but some showers are possible at times as will see a quick moving low pressure system with its occluded front (purple) warm front (red) and cold front (blue) move ENE across the upper Midwest.

Not a lot of change in this week’s drought monitor update.

7% of Minnesota remains in D1 or Moderate Drought (orange areas on map) this is unchanged from last week.

28% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry (yellow areas on map) this is up from 26% last week.

Source: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

9% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry (yellow areas on map) this is up from 8% last week.

Next week continues to look cold across the Northland, with the chilliest air arriving during the middle to end of next week the way it looks now. Could be looking at daytime highs only in the upper 30s and 40s sometime mid to late next week, and there is even a chance that some of us see a few snow flurries for the first time this season late next week.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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