Active Weather Pattern this week; few showers Tuesday morning; rain chances Wednesday; much colder with snow/rain showers this weekend

24 hour precipitation record broken at Duluth, Minnesota for October 12th with 1.17″ of precipitation. The old record was 0.95″ set 121 years ago in 1899.

Duluth’s precipitation deficits after last night’s rain: -3.35″ below normal since September 1st, and -9.86″ below normal since January 1st.

Three systems thru midweek. The first already moved through the Northland this morning, a second system (weakest of the three) moves through the area late tonight/Tuesday morning, and then will see one more system move across the area on Wednesday, and this one looks fairly strong at the moment, but there continues to be differences in the models on the track of Wednesday’s low. If it goes further north, less rain for Duluth, if it tracks further south, steadier rain in the Twin Ports. Stay tuned.

Source: 12z NAM model 10.12.2020; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

A few showers are possible over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late tonight or Tuesday morning as a quick moving system passes through, but once this moves out we should see quite a bit of sunshine again on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 50s, but a few locations in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin may get close to 60 Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will be another windy day with a west or northwest wind of 15 to 25 mph with gusts >30 mph likely.

Note: A few showers are possible in Duluth and Superior from around 5 AM to 8 AM Tuesday.

18z NAM 3km radar forecast valid from 1 AM tonight to 7 PM Tuesday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Another half to one inch of precipitation is possible across much of the Northland thru Thursday, although most of this would fall with the system on Wednesday.

Note: Rainfall amounts Tuesday morning are forecast to range from a trace to around 0.10 inches, and the greatest amounts should be over far northern Minnesota (north of Duluth)

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

The entire Northland received a nice soaking rain Monday morning with widespread half to one inch plus totals.

Duluth’s rainfall total (Airport location) of 1.17″ on October 12, 2020 is the greatest calendar day rainfall total since October 21, 2019 with 1.24″ of rain.

Precipitation total of 1.17″ at the Duluth Airport on October 12, 2020 is only the second one inch or greater calendar day precipitation event so far this year. The other occurred on July 18 (1.10″)

Rainfall Reports for October 11-12, 2020
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/; https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Moose Lake, MN: 1.89″
Saginaw, MN: 1.83″
Cloquet, MN: 1.76″
Moose Lake, MN: 1.68″
Hinckley, MN: 1.51″
Aitkin, MN: 1.38″
Barnes, WI: 1.30″
Esko, MN: 1.20″
Duluth Airport: 1.18″
Brainerd, MN: 1.13″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 1.11″
Breezy Point, MN: 1.09″
Grand Marais, MN: 1.07″
International Falls, MN: 1.00″
McGregor, MN: 1.00″
Bigfork, MN: 0.99″
Longville, MN: 0.96″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.93″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.87″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.87″
Hayward, WI: 0.83″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.81″
Washburn, WI: 0.78″
Ely, MN: 0.79″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.76″
Siren, WI: 0.74″
Ashland, WI: 0.71″
Isabella, MN: 0.70″
Minong, WI: 0.68″
Orr, MN: 0.65″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.55″
Walker, MN: 0.41″

Impressive forcing last night as a strong trough moved over the area causing enhanced lift and heavy downpours across parts of the Northland. Also had a round of thunderstorms in the Twin Ports around 1 this morning with several reports of hail generally around 0.25 to 0.50 inch in diameter.

Radar loop of last night’s and today’s rain event – Loop time from 1:48 AM to 3:47 PM, Monday, October 12, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Local Storm Reports from Monday, October 12, 2020
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

12:17 PM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 47 mph. 1 S Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

11:56 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 43 mph. 1 S Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

11:45 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 46 mph. 1 S Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

10:00 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 60 mph. 4 S Beaver Bay, MN. Ship report – American Integrity

9:40 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 46 mph. 1 SSE Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)

9:01 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 42 mph. 5 ENE Washburn, WI.

8:40 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 40 mph. 3 SSW French River, MN.

8:30 AM: Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 45 mph. 1 ESE Duluth, MN (Duluth Harbor)

1:05 AM: Hail 0.25 inch. 1 WSW Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) Piedmont, Duluth, MN.

1:02 AM: Hail 0.25 inch. 1 ENE West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

1:00 AM: Hail 0.50 inch. 1 WSW Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) Piedmont neighborhood.

12:59 AM: Hail 0.75 inch. 1 E West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

12:57 AM: Hail 0.25 inch. 1 NNE Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)
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A fairly active weather pattern is in place right now as a strong upper level low spins across northern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A potent mid/upper level trough axis continues to move off to the east this afternoon, in its wake is a westerly flow aloft with seasonable temperatures across the Northland.

Temperatures across the Northland weren’t bad at all this afternoon with mid 50s to low 60s in our area which is roughly 5 degrees above normal for October 12th. Eventually will see the cold air circled in white make its way into the Northland, this should occur by late this week.

Clouds quickly exited the Northland to the NE this afternoon giving way to abundant sunshine, but the next quick moving system is already moving in marked by the increase in cloud cover across North Dakota late this afternoon. This next disturbance won’t be nearly as strong as the one which affected us Sunday night. Only looking at a few rain showers over parts of the Northland late tonight and Tuesday morning.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

49/50 European ensemble members show at least a little snow in Duluth on or after October 16th, and thru the end of the forecast run which is October 27th. Snow amounts differ between the members, but the main takeaway is that we will likely see at least a little snow in Duluth beginning later this week.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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