Mild through the weekend; cooler and a little more active next week

Mild temperatures continue Saturday, although perhaps not quite as warm as it was on Friday as we could have more clouds around tomorrow, but Saturday’s temps will still be well above normal for November. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, but a few locations across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin could make a run at 70 degrees again. Note: A northeast wind is possible near Lake Superior on Saturday, and if it occurs temps could hold in the 40s within about 10 miles of the big lake.

Sunday also looks warm with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with a breezy southerly wind.

Record warmth is possible yet again on Saturday – Here are the record high temperatures for November 7th.

Ashland, WI: 69 degrees set in 1949

Brainerd, MN: 65 degrees set in 1931, tied in 1975

Duluth, MN: 65 degrees set in 1874 (146 year old record)

International Falls, MN: 64 degrees set in 2016

Hibbing, MN: 63 degrees set in 1964

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Another very warm day across the Northland with widespread 70s this afternoon from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, including two locations Superior and Ashland which were within 2-3 degrees of 80 on this 6th of November!

Note: 3 days so far this month at or above 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota – this is a record for most number of 70 degrees days in November. The previous record was 2 days set November 1903, and November 2016.

***Record High Temperatures set today, November 6th, 2020***

Ashland, WI: New record 78 degrees; old record 72 degrees set in 2016.

Brainerd, MN: New record 75 degrees; old record 72 degrees set in 1975.

Duluth, MN: New record 75 degrees; old record 70 degrees set in 2016.

Hibbing, MN: New record 70 degrees; old record 68 degrees set in 2016.

Note: Duluth, Minnesota recorded their warmest temperature on record for November, with a high of 75 degrees today, November 6th, 2020. The previous warmest temperature on record in November was 73 degrees on November 3rd, 1903, and just two days ago on November 4th, 2020. Records for Duluth go back to 1874.

One of the reasons why its been so warm across the upper Midwest this week is due to a strong and persistent upper level ridge which was over the western US earlier in the week, but now has moved over the Midwest today. 500mb heights are incredibly high so far north for November ranging from 570 to 582 decameters.

Eventually will see the colder air located to our north today begin to push farther south/east next week as the ridge breaks down a bit and shifts more into the southern/eastern US, while a trough remains over the western US. Note: This new pattern should lead to somewhat more active weather across the Northland next week, but until then expect more of the same, and that is warm and dry conditions through the weekend.

Water vapor loop for Friday, November 6, 2020 – A strong trough across the western US, ridging to the east.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

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We have two shots of precipitation early next week – The 1st should mainly be in the form of rain, and this occurs on Monday, with amounts of an inch or more possible across parts of northwest Wisconsin, to around a quarter to half inch across northeast and east-central Minnesota. Note: We could see the axis of higher precipitation amounts shift a little further west in coming days. Stay tuned.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

A second wave of precipitation could affect parts of the Northland sometime in the Tuesday-early Wednesday time frame. We should have enough cold air over the area by then for mostly snow, but we could also see a rain/snow mix for a time especially over parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Note: Computer models continue to disagree on the track of Tuesday’s system so it remains to be seen how far west/north precipitation will get, and if it will even affect some parts of our area, or will it stay further south/east?

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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