Areas of fog and drizzle near Lake Superior tonight; Rain Monday (isolated thunder) Some snow or rain possible Tuesday-early Wednesday

One more dry day ahead on Sunday before rain moves in on Monday, and it looks pretty rainy on Monday with potential for rainfall of over an inch across east-central and northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, while lesser amounts of rain of around a quarter to half inch are expected across northern Minnesota. Note: Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Monday from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin as computer models do show some weak elevated CAPE moving over the area.

But let me get back to Sunday’s weather for a second, although it will be dry once again, Sunday is looking rather breezy across the Northland as southerly winds increase to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible. Warm temps will also continue Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s, but a NE wind could keep it quite a bit cooler once again closer to Lake Superior.

Record warmth is possible on Sunday – See records list below.

***Record Highs for November 8th***

Ashland, WI: 73 F set in 1999

International Falls, MN: 72 F set in 1999

Hibbing, MN: 70 F set in 1999

Duluth, MN: 69 F set in 1999

Brainerd, MN: 69 F set in 1931

Record warmth continued in the Northland today, November 7th, 2020

Ashland, WI: New record 70 degrees; old record for November 7th was 69 degrees set in 1949.

Brainerd, MN: New record 67 degrees; old record for November 7th was 65 degrees set in 1931, tied in 1975.

Hibbing, MN: New record 64 degrees; old record for November 7th was 63 degrees set in 1964.
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A northeast wind is keeping temperatures on the ‘cool’ side near Lake Superior today with temps in the 40s and 50s, but it’s very mild once again away from Lake Superior this afternoon as temperatures have climbed well into the 60s with even a few locations at or close to 70 degrees.

Note: A humid easterly flow coming off Lake Superior will lead to areas of fog (locally dense) and some drizzle tonight into Sunday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior south to Duluth and Superior.

Check out these dew points this afternoon, in the low to mid 50s in early November in parts of Minnesota, crazy stuff! 50s dew points would be considered dry/not humid at all during summer, but in November it’s a whole different story.

Note: Will keep the humid weather around into Monday as dew points remain in the 50s across much of the Northland.

Pattern continues to amplify today with a strong trough to the west and a massive ridge to the south/east.

Incredibly high 500mb heights remained over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, ranging from 570 to 582 decameters.

Water vapor loop for Saturday, November 7, 2020.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

Heavy snow and blizzard conditions on the cold side of the western trough, while on the warm side of the trough it’s all about the wind, and those winds will be howling out of the south late tonight into Sunday with potential for wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph over quite a large area from the Dakotas south to Kansas and east to parts of Minnesota and Iowa.

Source: https://home.pivotalweather.com/

Look at this temperature contrast for Monday afternoon. 10s and 20s across the Northern Plains to the 70s from southern/eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Note: The colder air will be on the move late Monday into Tuesday as it pushes farther to the south/east.

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Update on a potential snow event for Tuesday-early Wednesday.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the Central Plains late Monday, this low is expected to move rather rapidly to the NE, reaching eastern Lake Superior by Tuesday night the way it looks now.

An area of snow could develop NW of the low in the colder air, and this snow could affect parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

There remains some uncertainty with the track of Tuesday’s system, any shift to the east east would cause the snow to also shift farther east and away from most of the Northland, while a storm track further west would result in the area of snow to shift more into central and northern Minnesota, while rain or snow would occur across most of northwest Wisconsin.

This system looks like a quick hitter, however, which should limit the amount of snow that falls, but at least a few inches of snow are a possibility out of this system.

Stay tuned

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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