A little snow possible in parts of the Northland tonight and Thursday; rain/snow chances this weekend; Nov. 10-11 snowfall totals

We’ve got a little snow in the forecast tonight in far northern Minnesota, and then on Thursday will see an area of snow move ENE across east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Not expecting much snow in these areas tonight or Thursday, with accumulations of around a half inch to an inch at most. Note: If we see some snow in Duluth on Thursday timing looks to be from ~8 AM to Noon.

Over the last month, Duluth, Minnesota has set a total of 9 new records, including 3 daily snowfall records, 2 daily rainfall records, 3 daily record high temperatures and 1 daily lowest high temperature record – See list below.

Oct. 12th: Rainfall record of 1.17″
Oct. 20th: Snowfall record of 5.8″
Oct. 22nd: Snowfall record of 4.1″
Oct. 25th: Record lowest high temp of 27 degrees
Nov. 4th: Record high of 73 degrees
Nov. 6th: Record high of 75 degrees
Nov. 8th: Record high of 69 degrees
Nov. 9th: Rainfall record of 1.18″
Nov. 10th: Snowfall record of 7.3″
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Actual snowfall from Tuesday’s storm, and the area outlined in black where snow totals were a lot higher compared to my forecast. The edges, not bad, but wow that area from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead was a total disaster in that a lot more snow fell than what I had in my forecast.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Here was my final snowfall forecast for Tuesday, November 10, 2020.

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland for November 10-11, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 6 NE Hill City, MN: 10.0″
  • 8 S Grand Rapids, MN: 9.5″
  • Baxter, MN: 9.3″
  • Brainerd, MN: 9.0″
  • Kettle River, MN: 8.5″
  • 5 SSE La Prairie, MN: 8.5″
  • 2 ESE Kinney, MN: 8.0″
  • Winton, MN: 7.9″
  • Duluth Airport: 7.8″
  • 3 E Alborn, MN: 7.8″
  • 1 N Babbitt, MN: 7.5″
  • Cloquet, MN: 7.3″
  • Hoyt Lakes, MN: 7.3″
  • 3 NNE Twig, MN: 7.1″
  • 1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 7.0″
  • Aitkin, MN: 7.0″
  • Floodwood, MN: 7.0″
  • 1 NNW Foxboro, WI: 6.8″
  • Moose Lake, MN: 6.5″
  • 4 SSE Malmo, MN: 6.2″
  • Rice Lake, MN: 6.1″
  • 1 SSW Ely, MN: 6.0″
  • 2 SSW Barnum, MN: 6.0″
  • 5 E Wawina, MN: 6.0″
  • Hill City, MN: 6.0″
  • Cornucopia, WI: 6.0″
  • 4 NNE South Range, WI: 5.4″
  • 2 E Leader, MN: 5.0″
  • 3 NE Nisswa, MN: 5.0″
  • McGregor, MN: 5.0″
  • 7 NW Two Harbors, MN: 4.7″
  • 2 SW Two Harbors, MN: 4.4″
  • Silver Bay, MN: 4.2″
  • Gordon, WI: 4.0″
  • Oulu, WI: 4.0″
  • Cohasset, MN: 4.0″
  • Pequot Lakes, MN: 3.8″
  • 4 NNE Stone Lake, WI: 2.8″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 2.5″
  • 4 NNW New Post, WI: 2.1″
  • Hayward, WI: 2.0″

Freezing Rain Reports for November 10, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 2 NNW Mellen, WI: 0.30″
  • Gile, WI: 0.25″
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Snow cover after Tuesday’s storm showed up nicely this Wednesday afternoon on Goes-16 visible satellite imagery.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A few disturbances will be moving east out of the Northern Rockies and Dakotas and across the upper Midwest tonight and Thursday, these aren’t big systems, but they will bring enough lift with them to squeeze out some snow in spots over the next 24 hours.

These ‘little’ systems also show up nicely on the 500mb vorticity forecast which goes thru 7 PM Thursday.

Those dips in the solid black lines on the animation below represent some lift in the atmosphere.

Source: 18z RGEM model; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

18z NAM 3km radar forecast from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Thursday.

Snow in blue colors on the animation below.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

I’m also keeping an eye on another system for this weekend which could bring at least a little rain and snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Stay tuned.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://weather.cod.edu/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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