- Snow will move into the Northland from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, with snow reaching Duluth and Superior Saturday evening in the 6-9 PM time frame the way it looks now.
- Snow ends across the Northland from west to east Sunday morning.
- The snow late Saturday/early Sunday will be light and fluffy due to a colder air mass which will be in place, unlike the last system which contained a lot of warm air which led to a concrete type of snowfall for areas that saw snow.
Saturday morning and even most of Saturday afternoon look dry across the Northland, but snow will eventually move in from the west/south later Saturday afternoon, but the snow likely won’t reach the Arrowhead until late Saturday evening.
Note: There could be a few lake effect flurries/snow showers along the North Shore during the day Saturday as winds become south, but any lake effect shouldn’t amount to more than a dusting.
18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday.
Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
Here’s my snowfall forecast for this weekend’s snow event.
- Computer models continue to show upwards of a tenth of an inch of precipitation, with around two tenths inch possible in southern parts of the area, this combined with what should be high snow to liquid ratios of around 15:1 to 18:1 should lead to a widespread 1 to 4 inch snowfall in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with the highest amounts currently expected in eastern Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin.
- Another area which may see higher snow totals is along the North Shore of Lake Superior where S-SE winds coming off the lake could lead to some lake enhancement Saturday night.
- I’m going with 2 to 3 inch snow totals for the immediate Duluth and Superior area.
Note: If precipitation amounts trend lower, then snow amounts will be reduced by an inch or so from what the map shows below.
Winter Weather Advisories (purple) cover areas from eastern South Dakota through southern Minnesota into central/southern parts of Wisconsin for Saturday into Sunday morning.
Note: No winter weather headlines in effect across the Northland, and we probably won’t see any issued in our area from this next system.
Our weekend system consists of two waves of energy, but they will remain separate with no phasing between the southern and northern waves.
Water vapor loop from Friday, January 22, 2021.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu/
As low pressure approaches from the NW on Saturday it will help draw enough moisture (PWATS ~0.25″) northward which will then interact with a colder air mass to produce accumulating snowfall across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and elsewhere across the upper Midwest.
Increasing amounts of lift will eventually make its way into the Northland late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and this is when will see most of our snow. The amount of lift diminishes from west to east Sunday morning-early Sunday afternoon, and once that happens the snow will come to an end.
18z NAM model 700mb vertical velocity forecast valid 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday.
Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
This is a long ways out, and model runs will change from day to day, but I’ve been noticing a pretty consistent signal showing up in model data for a larger storm to move out into the Plains sometime in early February, and this system could impact some parts of the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and the Northland around February 3-6. Something to keep an eye on over the next week or so.
Shown below is the 12z Euro Ensemble model valid for February 3, 2021.
Source: https://weathermodels.com/
Tim
