A dusting of snow possible Sunday; near 40 degree temps and breezy Monday-Tuesday with a few snow/rain showers

  • A little snow is possible in parts of the Northland on Sunday with accumulations generally less than an inch, although its possible that a few isolated locations might get up to an inch of new snow. Impacts from this snow should be minimal though since temperatures will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s on Sunday, and whatever new snow we get will just melt away on Monday as temps soar toward 40 degrees!
  • The overall pattern does look a bit more active in the week ahead, but no major storms will be impacting the Northland, instead will be seeing a few warm front and cold frontal passages leading to periods of gusty winds, and possibly a few snow or mixed rain/snow showers across the area.

Tonight should remain dry in the Northland, and then we could see some areas of light snow move through parts of the area during the day Sunday, ending from SW-NE later Sunday afternoon.

12z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM Sunday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Heavier snowfall amounts in the 2-5″ range are expected Sunday in much of Iowa and far southern Minnesota and because of this there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for those areas.

Meanwhile there is an Air Quality Alert in effect thru Sunday for much of central/southern Wisconsin, and also for parts of east-central and southeast Minnesota (not shown on map below) Stagnant air is increasing fine particle concentrations in the air quality alert areas, with light winds and poor atmospheric mixing.

0 days so far this month with a temperature of 32 degrees or warmer in Duluth (normal in February is 7 days at or above 32 degrees) but this should change in the week ahead as temperatures climb above freezing on a few days starting on Monday (22nd) Note: The last time Duluth had a temperature at or above freezing was on January 21 (high of 33 F) so about a month ago!

Warmest days in Duluth look to be Monday and Tuesday, after that temperatures will go on a roller coaster (up/down)

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

High temps were in the 20s across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today, and by Monday these temps will be a good 15 to as much as 20 degrees warmer compared to what we saw today.

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There’s only about a week left in Meteorological Winter 2020-2021 (the period from Dec. 1 – Feb. 28)

Waco, Texas has seen just as much snow as Bismarck, North Dakota, while Oklahoma City has had more snow than Fargo, North Dakota. These are just a few of the weird things we’ve seen this winter. It’s almost like the Northern Plains has shifted to the Southern Plains and vice versa.

Here’s a look at snowfall totals and percent of normal so far this winter (thru Feb. 19)

  • Marquette, MI: 56.2″ (normal to date 110.2″) 51% of normal
  • Des Moines, IA: 47.1″ (normal to date 23.2″) 203% of normal
  • Chicago, IL: 45.1″ (normal to date 25.5″) 177% of normal
  • Duluth, MN: 30.2″ (normal to date 45.0″) 67% of normal
  • International Falls, MN: 27.4″ (normal to date 37.2″) 74% of normal
  • Minneapolis, MN: 23.9″ (normal to date 29.1″) 82% of normal
  • Oklahoma City, OK: 22.3″ (normal to date 6.0″) 372% of normal
  • Fargo, ND: 12.3″ (normal to date 26.8″) 46% of normal
  • Bismarck, ND: 9.0″ (normal to date 23.3″) 39% of normal

The Midwest and Northeast U.S. have been the places to be this winter if you like a lot of snow as that has been the preferred storm track here in the winter of 2020-2021.

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest have seen less snow compared to normal so far this winter, with parts of North and South Dakota only seeing ~25 to 50% of their normal snowfall, while much of Minnesota has seen anywhere from 50-75% of its normal snowfall.

Drought conditions may worsen as we head into the spring months from the Dakotas to Minnesota due to a lack of winter snowfall/precipitation. In fact, our current drought goes back about a year with no real change or long lasting changes occurring in the pattern during that time period, so unless we see a significant pattern change in the next few months, drought conditions will likely get worse in the spring and early summer around here.

Nearly 51% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of Saturday, February 20, 2021.

The amount of Lake Superior covered by ice has increased significantly in just the last 2 weeks, with <5% ice coverage earlier this month, to over 50% ice coverage here on February 20.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Saturday, February 20, 2021 shows lake effect clouds (outlined by a yellow line) lifting N-NE across northern/eastern portions of Lake Superior today, while the white areas over Lake Superior which show little movement represents where there is ice.

Source: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/

Tim

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