A few snow chances ahead; mild temps Friday-Saturday followed by cooler temps Sunday-Monday; drought update

We’ve got three systems that will be impacting the upper Midwest thru early next week.

  • System one moves through Friday evening
  • System two comes through Saturday night-Sunday morning
  • System three moves through Sunday night-early Monday morning

The first system doesn’t look to produce a whole lot of precipitation, with only a few pockets of snow or mixed precipitation possible in parts of the Northland late Friday afternoon/evening, but snow accumulations look very minimal, mostly <1/2″.

The second system for Saturday night-Sunday morning has trended a little stronger in model data today, and this one could produce a swath of accumulating snow (2-4″?) somewhere in Minnesota and Wisconsin, most likely from south-central Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin, or mostly south of the Northland the way it looks now.

The third system for Sunday night-early Monday could bring another burst of snow to much of the Northland, but amounts look pretty light, maybe an inch at most.

Here’s the 18z GFS model 500mb vertical velocity forecast valid from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM Saturday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

A look at where there’s snow on the ground and where there isn’t any snow on the ground as we approach the end of February.

Green=Snow cover

Blue=No Snow cover

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

…Drought Update as of February 23, 2021…

  • 24% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought (orange areas on map below) this is up from 7% three months ago.
  • 100% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry (yellow areas on map) this is up from 44% three months ago.
  • 60% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, this is up from just 6% three months ago.

The High Plains continue to see widespread moderate to exceptional drought conditions, with most of North and South Dakota either in Moderate or Severe Drought.

Tim

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