Winter Storm Update

Issued 4:13 PM Wednesday

These spring storms are probably my favorite storms of all. From a severe thunderstorm threat on one side of a low, to a winter storm on the other side of a low, this is why I find weather so fascinating. People (well most of them) don’t become interested in weather for sunny, dry weather day after day, they become interested in it for storms, but don’t get me wrong, I enjoy nice sunny weather, but I also enjoy a good storm!

Everything that has to occur in the atmosphere in order for rain to change to snow is simply amazing, and to see it unfold pretty much as expected makes it even better. Now we see how this current storm plays out tonight, since this storm is just getting started as of this writing (4 PM Wednesday)

Winter storm warnings on one side of Minnesota (pink areas) and a risk for tornadoes on the other side of Minnesota (red/dark red areas) including a few active tornado warnings in the 4 PM hour south of Minneapolis.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight’s storm.

For Duluth and Superior – I’m sticking with a total of 3-5 inches of snow, however, should snow become the dominant precipitation type with very little mixed precipitation, then it’s possible we could see greater than 6 inches of snow in the Twin Ports, but I’m still leaning toward more of a wintry mix occurring through this evening which should help keep our snow totals more in that 3-5 inch range, but there could also be some accumulation of sleet and possibly even a little ice accumulation as well as in addition to the wet slushy snowfall will see tonight. Note: Gusty east to northeast winds are also likely in the Twin Ports until around 2-3 AM tonight, with wind gusts increasing to 25 to 45 mph through this evening.

700mb low was over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota late this afternoon, this low will move northeast tonight, with strong lift/vertical motion (orange and red areas on map) continuing north and east of the 700mb low.

Will continue to see convective elements to the precipitation in the Northland tonight with periods of heavier snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain due to the strong lift occurring in the atmosphere. A few thunderstorms are likely as well tonight, especially from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

  • Snow will continue tonight across northeast and north-central Minnesota, with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in at times especially from the North Shore to Duluth and Superior, south to Moose Lake.
  • Most of northwest Wisconsin will continue to see rain tonight, except far northwest areas where rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain are likely. Precipitation will then switch over to some snow over most of northwest Wisconsin overnight tonight.
  • Snow ends from west to east Thursday morning in the 6-10 AM time frame.

The first tornado watch to include parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin in 2021 has been issued until 8 PM this evening (red area on map) including southeastern Minnesota and a small part of west-central Wisconsin.

Tim

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