A few showers tonight; scattered showers/t-storms Monday, warmer and more humid (much cooler near Lake Superior)

  • A warm front will be lifting north/east out of southern Minnesota and into the Northland by Monday afternoon-evening. A few showers are possible well north of this boundary tonight, followed by a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, with the greatest chances from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
  • A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday/Monday night in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with hail up to quarter size, and strong winds to 60 mph being the primary hazards along with downpours and lightning.
  • Highs in the Northland on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s, but much cooler temps ranging from the 40s to around 60 degrees will be found near Lake Superior as northeast winds continue, but the wind shouldn’t be as strong as what we saw today (Sunday).
  • Expect more humid conditions (away from Lake Superior) by Monday afternoon as dew points rise to the mid 50s to mid 60s.
  • Tuesday is shaping up to be a breezy but warm day in the Northland as gusty southwest winds develop as a cold front moves across the area. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, mainly across northwest Wisconsin, but this threat could extend further west into northeast Minnesota depending on the timing of Tuesday’s cold front.
  • Mid to late week time frame is looking generally dry but cool at the moment in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
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A dry May continues across much of the Northland with rainfall departures ranging from an inch to two inches below normal for the month, although Duluth and Ashland are doing a little better compared to other locations in our area, but both locales are still running below normal for the month of May.

…Rainfall Departures for May 2021 (thru 4 PM on the 23rd)

Ashland, WI:

-0.83″ below normal (67% of normal)

Duluth, MN:

-1.01″ below normal (59% of normal)

Hibbing, MN:

-1.24″ below normal (36% of normal)

International Falls, MN:

-1.51″ below normal (29% of normal)

Brainerd, MN:

-2.12″ below normal (10% of normal)

Overall it looks like much of the Northland will have below normal precipitation through May 31st, this despite a few chances for rain which are in the forecast this week.

Rain chances for mid to late week are greatest south of the Northland the way it looks now.

The setup for later this week is one that features high pressure north of Lake Superior (blue H) while low pressure (red L) heads out into the Plains. Most of the rain associated with that Plains low looks like it will remain south of the Northland late this week, however, if this system ends up tracking farther north, that would increase the chances for some rain to affect parts of the Northland in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Stay tuned.

Note: There are differences per model solutions on the track of this late week system, with the GFS and Canadian models bringing the low farther north (higher rain chances at least in southern portions of the Northland) while the Euro is a miss. The GFS and Canadian models even show enough cold air for some snow or a rain/snow mix late Thursday-early Friday in parts of the Northland.

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What a difference a day makes! Temperatures which were in the 70s and 80s near Lake Superior on Saturday have been replaced with temperatures only in the upper 30s and lower 40s today, and to go along with the colder temperatures we have a strong northeasterly wind which has been gusting 30-45 mph today.

A few areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms have been developing today in the colder air across northwest Wisconsin, with a few showers extending west to the Twin Ports. All of this activity has been developing well north of a warm front which was over southern Minnesota today.

Wind chills have been running in the upper 20s to lower 30s near Lake Superior today on this 23rd day of May.

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Some parts of the Northland were hit by scattered downpours and thunderstorms late last evening into early this morning (black outlined area on map)

Several waves of showers and thunderstorms moved across parts of the Northland late last night with reports of 1 to 2 inches of rain north of Duluth from those storms.

Additional showers and a few thunderstorms have been developing today while moving across northwest Wisconsin.

Radar loop from 11:01 PM Saturday, May 22, 2021 to 4:25 PM Sunday, May 23, 2021.

…Rainfall Totals from across the Northland…

Note: Totals listed below are from Saturday evening to Sunday morning, May 22-23, 2021

  • 0.2 W Culver, MN: 2.10″
  • 4.6 NNE Canyon, MN: 1.90″
  • 1.2 SE Duluth, MN: 1.11″
  • Cotton, MN: 0.90″
  • Duluth Airport: 0.79″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.62″
  • 3 E Wright, MN: 0.41″
  • 2.0 E Poplar, WI: 0.29″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.16″
  • 3 E Orr, MN: 0.10″
  • Embarrass, MN: 0.07″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.06″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.02″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.01″

Tim

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