A few showers/t-storms possible tonight and Tuesday; mild and breezy Tuesday; turning cooler mid to late week with a late week frost threat

Will finally get a wind shift near Lake Superior on Tuesday as a gusty southwest wind develops which will help in warming things up considerably compared to the temperatures we saw on Sunday and Monday (30s and 40s) Highs near Lake Superior on Tuesday look to top out around 80 degrees, while the entire Northland has highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. It will be a breezy day, however, as southwest winds increase to 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts possible.

Temperatures cool down once again Wednesday with highs in the 50s and 60s, with even cooler temps arriving on Thursday with highs only in the 40s and 50s, coolest temps near Lake Superior as a strong NE wind returns for Thursday.

There is a chance for some frost in parts of the Northland Thursday night and again Friday night.

10-day Temperature Forecast for Duluth shows the coolest days in terms of daytime highs occurring Thursday and Friday, otherwise temperatures don’t look too bad, but of course any day with a lake wind would lead to temperatures being a lot cooler near Lake Superior over this 10-day period.

Note: Normal highs in Duluth from May 25 to June 3 are in the mid to upper 60s, with normal lows in the mid 40s.

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A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight as a warm front continues its push to the northeast. Then on Tuesday will see a cold front move across the Northland with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms especially in northwest Wisconsin, but a few models like the NAM model shows a chance for storms developing farther west in northeast Minnesota Tuesday afternoon due to a slower cold frontal passage compared to other models which keep the threat for storms confined to Wisconsin on Tuesday.

Note: Ingredients for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be better on Tuesday as will have stronger winds aloft across the region while there should be sufficient amounts of wind shear, instability and moisture in place as well to support a risk for a few strong storms, so it comes down to the timing of a cold front as to where storms develop on Tuesday.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

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Strong warming occurred today in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin after Sunday’s chilly temperatures.

We’re seeing widespread 70s and 80s away from Lake Superior this Monday afternoon.

24-Hour temperature change valid at 5 PM Monday, May 24, 2021 shows temperatures running some 30 to nearly 40 degrees warmer in much of the Northland compared to 5 PM on Sunday.

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…Late Week System…

An area of low pressure is forecast to move out into the Plains by midweek with this area of low pressure expected to pass well south of the Northland on Thursday. How far north the precipitation shield reaches from this Plains low is handled differently by the computer models today and over the last few days. The EURO and NAM models keep most if not all of the Northland dry late this week, while the GFS and Canadian models show a better chance for some rain making it into at least southern portions of the Northland including in Duluth and Superior. Stay tuned.

The NAM model (shown below) shows a lot of dry air pushing south of central Canada on Thursday thanks to an area of high pressure north of Lake Superior, this type of setup should help keep a late week system south of the Northland meaning that chances for precipitation look very low in most of our area Thursday into early Friday.

…Snow Chances…

The system for late this week could even bring some snow or a rain/snow mix to parts of the upper Midwest as strong dynamical cooling processes take place while temperatures aloft cool sufficiently to allow for some frozen precipitation.

Tim

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