Scattered showers/t-storms tonight and Friday with areas of fog near Lake Superior; Turning breezy and much cooler near Lake Superior Friday; Warm but dry this weekend into most of next week

A Flood Advisory is in effect until 8:45 PM this evening including southeast Ashland County and southeast Iron County in northwest Wisconsin – Some locations impacted include Butternut. Heavy rain due to thunderstorms is occurring in the advisory area with 1 to 2 inches of rain fallen so far thru 5:30 PM today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing today near a cold frontal boundary (blue line on map below) with the most organized storms thus far impacting parts of northeast Wisconsin and upper Michigan while storms farther west have pulsed up and down throughout the day.

Also of note is the fog and low clouds (yellow outlined area) which covered western Lake Superior today, the fog has moved onshore at times today, and expect more widespread foggy conditions to develop near Lake Superior tonight, lingering through the day Friday.

Goes-16 satellite loop from Thursday, June 10, 2021.

Radar loop from 2:18 AM Thursday to 5:21 PM Thursday, June 10, 2021 showing the areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms which have been moving through parts of the Northland since early this morning. These storms have been firing near a surface front, and also due to a lake breeze boundary around Lake Superior today. There is ample amounts of instability and moisture in place for thunderstorm development this evening, but weak winds aloft, poor mid level lapse rates and weak amounts of wind shear mean these storms will tend to develop then collapse pretty quickly. Downpours and lightning will continue to be the main threats with these storms tonight, with a lesser chance for hail and gusty winds.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals from around the Northland (ending 4 PM Thursday, June 10, 2021)

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

  • International Falls, MN: 0.69″
  • Orr, MN: 0.67″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.49″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.45″
  • Aitkin, MN: 0.12″
  • Brainerd, MN: 0.03″
  • Isabella, MN: 0.02″
  • Skibo, MN: 0.02″
  • Duluth Airport: 0.01″

Parts of northern Minnesota has seen a decent amount of rain over the last few days, well little to no rain has fallen for areas farther south and east in the Northland.

…Local Storm Reports from around the Northland from June 8th-9th, 2021…

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 7:20 PM (6/9): Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 18 miles north-northwest of Crane Lake, MN (St. Louis County) Trees down. Estimated 60 to 70 mph winds.
  • 2:45 AM (6/8): Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 15 miles east of Marcell, MN (Itasca County) Several large pine trees blown down, some snapped off. Trees 1-2 feet in diameter.
Advertisements

A risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms with downpours and lightning continues in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Friday evening, but unfortunately like we’ve seen the last few days, not everyone will see a storm or get much rain at all, just the way the pattern is right now.

Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending Midnight Friday night.

There’s still some hope for some rain through Friday evening for those areas that haven’t had any rain so far this week, but after Friday we go right back into a dry pattern this weekend lingering through much of next week the way it looks now.

Another hot one across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin today with 100 degree temperatures reported at Morris, Appleton, Madison and Willmar in southwest Minnesota late this afternoon. Elsewhere in Minnesota and Wisconsin we’re seeing widespread 90s today except in northern portions of both states where temps were in the 80s.

…Record High Temperature set at Brainerd, Minnesota for today, Thursday, June 10, 2021…

New record for today’s date: 97 degrees; old record was 95 degrees set in 1933.

Note the very cool air over Lake Superior today, temps in the 40s and even some 30s, this chillier air mass will be working southwest down Lake Superior on Friday resulting in daytime highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s within about 10 to 15 miles of Lake Superior. Will also have a gusty NE wind to accompany the cool temps, with wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph tonight and Friday. Much warmer air (highs in the 80s) returns near Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday as winds shift back to the west.

Heat index temperatures are in the 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin including 90 at the Duluth Airport at 3 PM today, and 101 at Hinckley.

A tropical like air mass is over the Northland today with dew points generally in the mid 60s to 70 degrees, it’ll stay humid tonight and Friday before a much drier air mass takes hold this weekend.

Advertisements

Drought expands across Minnesota and Wisconsin this week.

…Here is the latest drought monitor as of June 8, 2021…

  • 100% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry (yellow) this is up from 73% last week.
  • 46% of Minnesota is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is up from 13% last week.
  • 1% of Minnesota is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is up from 0.18% last week.
  • 81% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry (yellow) this is up from 50% last week.
  • 34% of Wisconsin is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is up from 25% last week.
  • D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) covers 5% of Wisconsin, this is unchanged from last week.

There isn’t a lot of good news in this week’s drought monitor update for North Dakota, although the area covered by Extreme Drought dropped a bit this week.

  • 17% of North Dakota remains in D4 or Exceptional Drought (dark red) unchanged from last week.
  • 67% of North Dakota is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is down from 76% last week.
  • 92% of North Dakota is in D2 or Severe Drought (orange) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 99% of North Dakota is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is up from 98% last week.
Advertisements

A massive upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to encompass the western half of the U.S. with major heat next week. The upper Midwest including the Northland will remain north/east of this upper ridge which will cause a NW or NNW flow aloft over our area for much of next week. Although the hottest temps are likely to remain west/southwest of our area next week, it still looks plenty warm in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin especially around the Wednesday-Thursday, June 16-17 time frame, this is when we could see 90 degree temps once again.

Tim

Leave a Reply