Mild this week; Much cooler next week; A few showers possible late Wednesday but overall a dry weather pattern continues

A ‘possible’ pattern change coming up in the long range as we could see an upper level low/trough develop across the Midwest and Great Lakes. If this type of pattern does develop, this would likely lead to a much cooler N-NW flow for a few days next week. End result from this could be for daytime highs to only be in the 50s and 60s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin ~June 21-23. Frost threat for next week looks minimal at the moment since overnight lows look to remain safely above the freezing mark, but this could change, and so could the overall potential for a cooler weather pattern. Stay tuned.

Note: The average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota so far for June 2021 is 69.0 degrees, this is +10.3 degrees warmer than average thru the 13th. The warmest June on record in Duluth was in 1910 with an average monthly temperature of 65.5 degrees.

Shown below is the 500mb height anomaly forecast valid from June 20-24, 2021.

The blue and green colors on the animation below represents lower heights/potential for cooler temperatures.

Today’s lake breeze front showed up nicely on radar imagery as it moved south/west down western Lake Superior, passing through Superior and Duluth between 3:30-4:30 PM today, although today’s lake breeze wasn’t nearly as strong as Sunday’s, but it was still pretty breezy this afternoon.

A big time heat dome will cover the western U.S. this week, but this heat wave will remain west/southwest of the upper Midwest, we will however get a brief spike in our high temps Wednesday and Thursday, with parts of western/southern Minnesota climbing into the 90s, well here in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin highs look to be in the 70s and 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

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A dry weather pattern continues in Duluth.

Total precipitation from January 1, 2020 to June 13, 2021: 30.14″ (normal is 42.22″) We’re running -12.08″ below normal in precipitation if you go all the way back to the start of 2020, and so far in 2021 we’re -2.16″ below normal.

Note: The graph below shows accumulated precipitation (green) in Duluth, MN, with the brown line indicating the normal amount of precipitation – The graph runs from January 1, 2020 to June 13, 2021.

As you can see from the graph below, precipitation totals in Duluth in 2020 were running close to normal up until May, and ever since then we have been playing catch up since our precipitation deficits are so far below normal right now when you include last year’s deficit.

Monthly precipitation anomalies for 2020 at Duluth, Minnesota

  • January: +0.41″ above normal
  • February: -0.63″ below normal
  • March: +0.25″ above normal
  • April: -1.13″ below normal
  • May: -2.29″ below normal
  • June: -3.54″ below normal
  • July: +1.40″ above normal
  • August: -0.98″ below normal
  • September: -3.26″ below normal
  • October: -0.07″ below normal
  • November: +0.36″ above normal
  • December: -0.22″ below normal

Monthly precipitation anomalies for 2021 at Duluth, Minnesota

  • January: -0.35″ below normal
  • February: -0.28″ below normal
  • March: +1.15″ above normal
  • April: +0.48″ above normal
  • May: -1.49″ below normal
  • June (thru the 13th) -1.41″ below normal

Note: Far more below normal precipitation months (11) in Duluth compared to above normal precipitation months (6) from January 2020 to May 2021.

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Doesn’t look like will be seeing much rain in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin through Sunday, but there are chances for a few showers in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame as a cold front moves across the area.

There are a few rain chances ahead into the middle of next week, the first arrives Wednesday evening/Thursday, the other next Monday-Tuesday, but neither one look very impressive in terms of rainfall amounts at the moment.

So overall a dry bias continues looking out the next two weeks which takes us pretty much to the end of this month. As of Monday morning, June 14th, Duluth was running nearly -1.50″ below normal in rainfall for June 2021.

Tim

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