Dry weather is expected in the Northland during the day Wednesday, but southerly winds will help draw some moisture and an increase in elevated instability into the Northland for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, this combined with an approaching cold front (providing some atmospheric lift) could lead to the development of a few showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
There is a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms over southwest portions of the Northland Wednesday night (dark green area on map) including the Brainerd Lakes, Aitkin and Hinckley areas. Storms across the rest of the Northland are not expected to be severe Wednesday night.
Note: Hail to one inch in diameter (quarter size) and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats if severe thunderstorms impact southern portions of the Northland Wednesday night.
Rainfall totals don’t look too impressive Wednesday night, but areas that do see a thunderstorm could pick up around a quarter inch or more of rain, but coverage of these storms look to be on the widely scattered side.
Here’s a look at two computer model forecasts for how things could play out for Wednesday night.
18z NAM 3km model valid 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.
3km NAM model does show a chance for a few storms possibly a small cluster of storms impacting parts of the Northland Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
18z HRRR model valid 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.
HRRR model doesn’t show a whole lot of rain/thunderstorm development in our area Wednesday night.
Big time heat across the Northern Rockies today with temperatures as hot as 107 to 109 degrees in parts of eastern Montana. This major heat wave won’t be affecting the Northland, however, as it passes by to our west-southwest thru Thursday.
A better chance for a more widespread soaking rain is looking a little more likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin in the Sunday-Monday time frame as a more organized low pressure system takes aim at the upper Midwest.
And behind that aforementioned system early next week could be a change in the pattern (at least a brief one)
We’re still looking at a chance for widespread daytime highs only around 50 to 60 degrees in the Northland early next week, and this would be well below normal for late June if it does happen. Chances for frost still look minimal at this time since overnight lows still look to remain safely above the freezing mark early next week.
The best chance for another 80 degree temp in Duluth thru June 25th comes on Thursday (17th)
So far this month, 9 days at or above 80 in Duluth, normal in June is 5 days, and the record for most number of 80 degree days in the month of June is 17 set in 1910, that record looks safe based on what I’m seeing in long range model data for the rest of this month, but ya never know!
Note: Normal highs in Duluth from June 16th to June 25th range from 72 to 75 degrees, normal lows range from 50 to 53 degrees.
10 Day Temperature Forecast for Duluth, Minnesota.
Tim
