A few showers possible across northern Minnesota Friday night-Saturday; Scattered rains possible at times area-wide Sunday into the middle of next week; Mild to warm temps continue

Scattered showers are possible across northern Minnesota Friday night into Saturday, while mainly dry conditions are expected farther south/east including in Duluth and Superior.

Chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are in the forecast across the entire Northland from Sunday through the middle of next week thanks to an upper level low pressure system and upper level trough which will be over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Rains won’t be continuous late this weekend into the middle of next week, but the overall pattern favors the development of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms (depending on the amount of CAPE/instability) each afternoon and evening from Sunday through at least next Tuesday the way it looks now.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday shows the potential for a few showers across far northern portions of Minnesota late Friday afternoon into Friday night, and possibly a few showers in northwest Wisconsin Saturday morning, but none of this rain looks widespread or heavy at the moment.

A very wet pattern is setting up across portions of the Midwest and Eastern Great Lakes the next few days.

Total Rainfall thru Sunday morning.

High temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin look to mainly be in the 70s to lower 80s Friday through next Wednesday, but there will be a lake breeze at times which will keep temps somewhat cooler within about 10-15 miles of Lake Superior.

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Radar loop of the thunderstorms from overnight Wednesday/Thursday morning, June 23-24, 2021 – One line of storms moved through Duluth and Superior around 2 this morning, and this was followed by a secondary thunderstorm which impacted mostly southern portions of Duluth, and all of Superior around 3:30 this morning.

Note: Radar loop time is from 12:05 AM to 3:43 PM.

That second storm which developed behind the initial line produced quite a hail track (mostly small stuff) per radar data as it moved basically along the Carlton & St. Louis County border early this morning.

…Local Storm Reports from June 24, 2021…

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 6:28 AM: Hail 0.25″. 3 WNW Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)
  • 4:45 AM: Hail 0.25″. Lake Nebagamon, WI (Douglas County)
  • 4:00 AM: Hail 0.25″. 8 W Minong, WI (Washburn County)
  • 4:00 AM: Hail 0.25″. 1 W Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)
  • 3:50 AM: Hail 0.88″. 4 SE Webster, WI (Burnett County)
  • 3:04 AM: Hail 0.50″. 1 SE Hinckley, MN (Pine County)
  • 2:47 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Red Cliff, WI (Bayfield County) Tree down.
  • 2:37 AM: Hail 0.75″. 1 NW Spooner, WI (Washburn County)
  • 2:24 AM: Hail 0.75″. 3 ENE Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)
  • 2:21 AM: Hail 0.50″. 2 NW Duluth, MN.
  • 2:20 AM: Marine Thunderstorm Wind 39 mph. 1 N Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County)

…Rainfall Reports from around the Northland from June 23-24, 2021…

Note: Totals listed below are thru 6 AM, June 24, 2021.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/; https://mesowest.utah.edu/

  • 9.2 NNE Hayward, WI: 1.40″
  • Cable, WI: 1.26″
  • Clam Lake, WI: 1.17″
  • Poplar, WI: 1.04″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.96″
  • Bayfield, WI: 0.90″
  • 2.0 WNW Superior, WI: 0.82″
  • 3 SW Butternut, WI: 0.82″
  • Hibbing, MN: 0.72″
  • 1 N Knife River, MN: 0.65″
  • Siren, WI: 0.63″
  • Solon Springs, WI: 0.63″
  • Glidden, WI: 0.58″
  • Superior Airport: 0.56″
  • Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.52″
  • 2 SE Brimson, MN: 0.51″
  • Riverside, WI: 0.50″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.46″
  • Washburn, WI: 0.37″
  • Minong, WI: 0.18″
  • Littlefork, MN: 0.15″
  • Duluth Airport: 0.10″
  • Bigfork, MN: 0.10″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.07″
  • Orr, MN: 0.06″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.06″
  • Moose Lake, MN: 0.05″
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 0.05″
  • Walker, MN: 0.02″
  • Aitkin, MN: 0.02″

Here’s a perfect example of what forecasters mean when they call for isolated to scattered coverage rains.

An isolated strong thunderstorm moved through southern portions of Duluth and the city of Superior around 3:30 this morning, but look how variable rainfall totals were with that thunderstorm, ranging from around to less than 0.10″ up at the Airport (north side of Duluth) to over a half an inch in the Proctor and Superior areas.

Some parts of the Northland did pick up a decent amount of rain early Thursday morning, with those blue and purple colors representing rainfall totals of 0.50″ to over 1.00″per radar estimates.

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Here’s the latest drought monitor as of June 22, 2021

-Drought conditions have worsen across Minnesota this week, while Wisconsin has seen some improvement.

Minnesota

  • 13% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange), this is up from 5% last week.
  • 74% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange), this is up from 55% last week.
  • 100% of the state is Abnormally Dry (yellow), this is unchanged from last week.

Wisconsin

  • 0.81% of the state is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red), this is unchanged from last week.
  • 6% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is down from 8% last week.
  • 51% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is down from 55% last week.
  • 76% of the state is Abnormally Dry (yellow) this is down from 81% last week.
  • 0.20% of the Midwest is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is down from 0.41% last week.
  • 10% of the Midwest is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is down from 11% last week.
  • 36% of the Midwest is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is up from 33% last week.
  • 54% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry (yellow) this is unchanged from last week.

No changes in this week’s drought monitor in North Dakota

  • 17% of the state is in D4 or Exceptional Drought (dark red)
  • 63% of the state is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red)
  • 93% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange)
  • 100% of the state is in Moderate Drought and is Abnormally Dry

A major heat wave is coming to the Pacific northwest and western Canada over the next several days with potential for daytime highs of 100 to as hot as 110 degrees!

High temperature forecast valid from June 25 to June 30, 2021.

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Watch the explosion of severe thunderstorms this afternoon over central Wisconsin via Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Thursday, June 24, 2021 – Those storms have dropped 2 inch diameter hail (hen egg size) near Bloomer, WI at around 3:40 PM today.

Thunderstorms in west-central Wisconsin have been producing incredible amounts of lightning this afternoon, with >500 lightning strikes in a 45 minute period!

Tim

1 Comment

  1. GARY Bright says:

    Looks like light winds for early next week . If so , I can hear some large bluegills calling my name !

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