Late Week Rain Chances
Here’s the forecast map for Friday morning, August 20, 2021
A low pressure system, upper level trough and cold front will be moving SW-NE from the Northern Plains to the upper Midwest Friday through Saturday morning – Large scale lift will accompany this system along with a good supply of moisture, this should all lead to some rain impacting northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Friday afternoon or Friday evening, lingering into early Saturday morning. There are still some uncertainties regarding the timing of the rain late this week, as well rainfall amounts in our area. Stay tuned.
An early look at rainfall amounts for the late week system shows the potential for around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain in much of northeast Minnesota, with a quarter to half inch of rain possible in most of northwest Wisconsin, but lower amounts are forecast in far eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin (Trace to <0.25″)
As for rain totals near the Greenwood fire (yellow outlined area) Up to a half inch of rain is possible over that area Friday night.
Precipitation deficits in the Northland
International Falls, MN:
Since June 1: -5.74″ below normal
Since January 1: -7.64″ below normal
Since June 1: -5.22″ below normal
Since January 1: -5.97″ below normal
Since January 1, 2020: Nearly -16″ below normal (-15.89″ below normal)
New record high temperatures were set today at International Falls, Brainerd and Hibbing – See list below.
New Record Highs set for August 17
Brainerd, MN: New record high of 95 F; Old record was 94 F set in 1901
International Falls, MN: New record high of 92 F; Old record was 90 F set in 1906
Hibbing, MN: New record high of 89 F; Old record was 87 F set in 1967, 1972, and 2008
More very warm temperatures are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Friday with daytime highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Cooler, more seasonable temps arrive this weekend.
High temperature forecast valid from Wednesday, August 18, 2021 through Friday, August 20, 2021.
An Air Quality Alert has been extended through 3 PM Friday, August 20, 2021 for the inland portion of Lake County in the Arrowhead of Minnesota (orange area on map) The affected area includes Stony River Township and Fall Lake Township. Smoke from the Greenwood fire will continue to impact areas near and immediately downwind of the fire to the north and northeast leading to poor air quality.
18z HRRR model smoke forecast through 1 PM Thursday shows higher altitude smoke continuing to impact the Northland through at least Thursday afternoon, with thicker smoke aloft showing up in the orange, red and purple colors on the animation below.