Blustery and chilly through midweek! Scattered snow or mixed rain-snow showers through Tuesday; Warming trend begins later this week

A cool weather pattern will continue in the Northland through midweek with daytime highs ranging from the mid 30s to around 40, while overnight lows fall into the 20s, with a few teens even possible in the typical spots. So yes it definitely will be on the chilly side the next few days, but hardly anything arctic when near surface temps are still well above zero, heck even remaining above the freezing mark during the day.

It continues to look like will see temperatures moderate some late this week into the week of November 7, how warm to be determined, but at the very least we’re likely looking at highs getting well into the 40s to around 50 in the Northland by next weekend and possibly beyond. Keep in mind that our normal highs fall from the low to mid 40s on November 5, to the upper 30s to lower 40s by November 9, so highs near 50 (assuming it gets that warm) would be roughly +10 degrees above normal in early November, but remember the warm stretch we had last November? If not here ya go!

High temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota from November 2-9, 2020

2nd: 51 F
3rd: 70 F
4th: 73 F
5th: 60 F
6th: 75 F
7th: 62 F
8th: 69 F
9th: 65 F

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An upper level low over western Ontario today will be moving off to the east the next few days. Lots of cold air underneath this upper low, with temperatures ~18,000 feet (500mb) down to -32 to -36C across the upper Midwest into central Canada today. All of this cold air aloft is part of the reason behind why we saw the showers in the Northland today.

A real mix bag of weather conditions in the Northland today featuring some sun, clouds, and scattered showers of snow, rain and even some graupel (soft hail/snow pellets). Some of the snow showers were on the heavy side for brief periods of time this afternoon, but the main impact was for reduced visibilities as those snow showers moved through parts of the area today.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, October 31, 2021.

Although we will see some scattered light precipitation in the Northland over the next few days we’re not looking at any major snow or rain events this week, and as a result we’re looking at below normal precipitation totals through November 6.

Scattered snow or mixed rain/snow showers will linger across the Northland through Tuesday.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast thru 7 PM Tuesday.

There could be some snow accumulations in far northern Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan over the next few days.

It’s looking likely that 2021 will finish below normal in the precipitation department at Duluth, Minnesota, with our precipitation deficit sitting at -6.53″ below normal (thru October 30).

Going even further back, the precipitation deficit at Duluth, Minnesota for the period January 1, 2020 thru October 30, 2021 is at -16.45″ below normal.

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Strong model agreement for a period of above normal temps in the Northland between November 7-12, 2021.

Tim

Long Range Forecast for November 2021; And a look at climate normals, records and past snowfall totals for November at Duluth, MN

Above average temperatures are forecast in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for November 2021.

Temperature trend for November 2021 per last 10 CFS model runs.

Above average temps in orange and red
Below average temps in blue

Near normal to below normal precipitation is forecast in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for November 2021.

Precipitation trend for November 2021 per last 10 CFS model runs.

Above normal precipitation in green
Below normal precipitation in yellow

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Climate normals and records at Duluth, Minnesota for November

Normal high on the 1st: 45
Normal high on the 30th: 30

Normal low on the 1st: 29
Normal low on the 30th: 16

Warmest November on record: 40.6 F set in 1899
Coldest November on record: 18.8 F set in 1959

On average we get 4 days in November with a high of at least 50 F
On average we get 1 day in November with a high of at least 60 F

On average we get 1 day in November with a subzero low temperature

Normal precipitation: 1.96″

Wettest November on record: 5.08″ set in 2000
Driest November on record: 0.09″ set in 1917

Normal snowfall: 14.1″

Snowiest November on record: 50.1″ set in 1991
Least snowiest November on record: Trace set in 1928

On average we get 9 days in November with at least 0.1″ of snow
On average we get 4 days in November with at least 1.0″ of snow

Mean date for first 1″ snowfall is November 2nd
Latest date for first 1″ snowfall is December 5th (2008)

Astronomical Data for Duluth for November 2021

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:52 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st: 5:52 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 4:22 PM CST

Note: Daylight saving time ends at 2 AM on Sunday, November 7.

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Past November snowfall totals at Duluth, Minnesota
2010-2020

Note: Normal snowfall in November is 14.1″ (1991-2020 climate period).

2010: 27.9″
2011: 3.7″
2012: 10.1″
2013: 4.7″
2014: 16.4″
2015: 4.4″
2016: 8.1″
2017: 10.5″
2018: 12.2″
2019: 27.7″
2020: 19.2″

Tim

Blustery and turning Colder! A few snow showers or mixed rain-snow showers at times over the next few days; Warming trend possible 2nd week of November

Strong cold air advection will take place in the Northland over the next few days as 850mb temperatures drop to between -5 to -8C Sunday and Monday, and from around -8 to -12C on Tuesday, by far the coldest air mass we’ve seen so far in the fall of 2021.

High temperatures will generally run from the mid 30s to low 40s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Sunday through Thursday with overnight lows in the 20s, but some teens are possible in the typical cold spots.

It will also be windy especially tonight and Sunday as the cold air rushes in, with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts >30 mph likely in our area for tonight and Sunday.

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Here comes the cold front marked by a band of clouds which stretched from northern Minnesota to western South Dakota late this Saturday afternoon.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Saturday afternoon, October 30, 2021.

Scattered snow showers or mixed rain and snow showers are possible in the Northland Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with some snow accumulation possible downwind off some of the larger inland lakes across northern Minnesota, and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin.

Note: It doesn’t look like will see any accumulating snow in Duluth and Superior over the next few days, but we likely will see some snow flurries from time to time, even near Lake Superior.

Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 1 AM Tuesday.

Snow in blue
Rain in green

The Northland will be in a N-NW flow aloft through Thursday, but after that the pattern looks like it may shift a bit, with more of a westerly flow possibly developing across the upper Midwest by next weekend.

It’ll be chilly most of the week ahead, but milder temperatures could return to our area by next weekend and beyond with perhaps a few more 50 degree days possible between November 6-12.

Tim

Areas of fog possible late tonight; Mild temps continue Saturday followed by colder temps and some snow showers early next week; Warmer weather could return 2nd week of November

Areas of fog may redevelop over parts of the Northland late this evening lingering into Saturday morning, with any fog and low clouds expected to burn off by Noon Saturday.

18z HRRR model visibility forecast shows the potential for reduced visibilities to <1 mile from fog (darker colored areas) over parts of southern, east-central, and northeast Minnesota, into parts of northwest Wisconsin late tonight into Saturday morning.

Sure was nice to finally see the sun again today after a few days of overcast skies across northeast Minnesota.

Low clouds and dense fog which developed late last night over northwest Minnesota (yellow outlined area) continued to erode this afternoon, while widespread clouds covered the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Friday, October 29, 2021.

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to middle 50s across the Northland this afternoon.

Note: Normal highs in our area on October 29 are in the mid to upper 40s.

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Accumulating snow remains possible during the early to middle part of next week in far northern Minnesota, and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin into upper Michigan.

A cold air mass and northwest winds will cause lake effect snow showers to develop early next week downwind of Lake Superior, and also downwind off some of the larger inland lakes across northern Minnesota.

Scattered snow showers and flurries are also possible over the remainder of the Northland early next week, but little if any snow accumulation is expected, this would include for Duluth and Superior.

European model snowfall forecast shown below.

One more mild day ahead on Saturday with highs in the 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but this will be followed by several days of cooler weather, with highs in the mid 30s to around 40 from next Monday through Thursday.

High temperature forecast valid October 30, 2021 through November 4, 2021.

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Seeing signs of a warmer weather pattern developing once again after next week with above normal temperatures possible across the Northland during the 2nd week of November, perhaps will get a few more 50 degree days after next week? Time will tell.

Tim

Some sun returns Friday and Saturday; Turning colder Halloween through much of next week with some snow showers possible early in the week

There’s been quite a bit of rain over the last 24 hours from International Falls south to the Brainerd Lakes, and east to the Aitkin area with totals of around an inch or more reported, but rainfall totals dropped off significantly farther to the east.

No signs of any major storms bringing rain or snow to the Northland at least through the middle of next week, but there likely will be some passing snow showers and flurries early next week, with some accumulating snow (lake effect) possible in far northern Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin and upper Michigan for early next week.

MRMS radar loop ending 5:20 PM Thursday, October 28, 2021.

A steadier rain covered southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin late this afternoon while areas of light rain and drizzle were found farther north and west across eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue over parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin tonight, but this rain is forecast to diminish from W-E after Midnight.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 7 AM Friday.

Updated precipitation totals/departure from normal for October 2021 — Thru 5 PM Thursday, October 28.

Brainerd, MN: 3.55″; +1.33″ above normal
International Falls, MN: 2.76″; +0.73″ above normal
Hibbing, MN: 2.09″; -0.09″ below normal
Duluth, MN: 1.89″; -0.78″ below normal
Ashland, WI: 1.77″; -0.87″ below normal

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The Northland continued to be blanketed by widespread clouds today, but things might change a bit on Friday and Saturday as at least some breaks in the clouds should develop.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, October 28, 2021.

A large low pressure system was over Missouri late this afternoon with a plume of moisture stretching all the way from the Gulf of Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic, northwest to the Great Lakes and upper Midwest, then south into the Central Plains.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, October 28, 2021.

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Rainfall totals over the last few days have varied considerably across the area with >1″ of rain over western portions of the Northland to little to no rain in the Arrowhead, and also over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

24-Hour Rainfall Reports from October 27-28, 2021.
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Totals below are thru 5 PM Thursday, October 28, 2021.

Brainerd, MN: 1.37″
Hill City, MN: 1.17″
Bigfork, MN: 1.04″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.98″
Littlefork, MN: 0.96″
Aitkin, MN: 0.96″
International Falls, MN: 0.82″
McGregor, MN: 0.75″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.71″
Pine River, MN: 0.56″
Hinckley, MN: 0.44″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.36″
Skibo, MN: 0.20″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.14″
Minong, WI: 0.10″
Siren, WI: 0.10″
Orr, MN: 0.09″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.07″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.07″
Cloquet, MN: 0.03″
Duluth Airport: 0.03″
Superior Airport: 0.03″
Hayward, WI: 0.01″

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A colder weather pattern is likely in the Northland for much of next week as we see an upper level ridge develop over western Canada while an upper low/trough sets up across central/eastern portions of Canada — This will all lead to a chillier N-NW flow developing across the upper Midwest next week.

500mb forecast valid from October 31, 2021 to Thursday, November 4, 2021.

High temperature forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin valid October 29 through November 3, 2021.

Friday and Saturday: Low to mid 50s.
Halloween (Sunday): 40s.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday: Mid 30s to low 40s.

A larger view of forecast high temperatures for October 29 through November 3, 2021.

Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early next week, but little if any snow accumulation is expected in most of the Northland, with the exception being for areas downwind of Lake Superior and also for areas downwind of some of the larger inland lakes across northern Minnesota, those areas could see some snow accumulation (black outlined areas on map) early next week.

Some of the lakes in northern Minnesota where some lake effect snow showers are possible early next week include Lake of the Woods, Rainy Lake, Red Lake, Leech Lake and Lake Winni.

Tim